Saturday March 06, 2010
The Most Crucial Difference Between “Avatar” and “Hurt Locker”
Despite this year's best picture race being unprecedented—10 nominees, etc.—all of the prognosticators think we're down to a two-horse race, “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar,” and they all point out the obvious differences between the two: $2.5 billion worldwide (and counting) vs. $18 million worldwide (and not); sci-fi fantasy vs. gritty reality; Cameron vs. Bigelow. But everyone's ignoring the most crucial difference:
The sci-fi fantasy set on a moon in a far-off galaxy is a greater critique of the Bush administration than the gritty war film set in Baghdad in 2004.
Make of that what you will.
As for which will win? As I said, we're in unprecedented territory. But let me resurrect a chart from last June showing the annual box office rankings of the various best picture nominees for the last 18 years, with the eventual winner in red:
The Annual Box Office Rankings for Best Picture Nominees, 1991-2008*
Year |
BO rank |
BO rank |
BO rank |
BO rank |
BO rank |
2008 | 16 | 20 | 82 | 89 | 120 |
2007 | 15 | 36 | 50 | 55 | 66 |
2006 | 15 | 51 | 57 | 92 | 138 |
2005 | 22 | 49 | 62 | 88 | 95 |
2004 | 22 | 24 | 37 | 40 | 61 |
2003 | 1 | 17 | 31 | 33 | 67 |
2002 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 56 | 80 |
2001 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 59 | 68 |
2000 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 32 |
1999 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 69 |
1998 | 1 | 18 | 35 | 59 | 65 |
1997 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 44 |
1996 | 4 | 19 | 41 | 67 | 108 |
1995 | 3 | 18 | 28 | 39 | 77 |
1994 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 51 | 56 |
1993 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 61 | 66 |
1992 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 20 | 48 |
1991 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 25 |
* Best picture winner in red.
Even when the Academy went rogue in 2004 and stopped nominating any picture that was popular, they still went for the first- or second-highest-grossing film among the nominees. Only once in the last 18 years, in 1999, did they pick outside the top two: “American Beauty,” which was still third.
As for how the box-office rankings look this year?
BO Rank |
Film |
Bonafides |
1 | Avatar | 9 noms; Golden Globe |
5 | Up | 5 noms; most Best Animated Film awards |
6 | The Blind Side | 2 noms |
25 | Inglourious Bastards | 8 noms; SAG ensemble |
27 | District 9 | 4 noms |
38 | Up in the Air | 6 noms; National Board of Review |
65 | Precious | 6 noms; Indy Spirit |
131 | The Hurt Locker | 9 noms; DGA; PGA; WGA; BAFTA; NY Film Critics; LA Film Critics; National Society of Film Critics; Most Film Critics |
135 | An Education | 3 noms |
145 | A Serious Man | 2 noms |
So “Hurt Locker” has all of those bonafides but...131st? That would be unprecedented. As would a sci-fi pic winning best pic. So pick your unprecedenteds.
The only other movie that seems to have a chance is “Inglourious Bastards.” Lotsa noms, did OK at the box office, beloved by critics, it's Holocausty-y, and, one imagines, it's getting the Harvey Weinstein push. Plus it won the SAG ensemble award, and there are more actors in the Academy than any other profession. It would be a good split-the-difference vote anyway.
My guess is “Avatar” but don't bet the house on it.
My choice is “Up.”
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