Movies - The Oscars posts

My friends Andrew and Vinny alerted me to this piece in The Washington Post, titled “The Oscars always get it wrong. Here are the real Best Pictures of the past 41 years.” That's always a fun topic. It's written by Dan Zak and Amy Argetsinger, two Post journalists who talk knowledgably about movies, but the point of the piece is discussion. We're resolving nothing. The opposite, really. 

And it turns out hindsight isn't always 20/20. More accurately, there is no 20/20 when we're talking favorite films. Or favorite anything.

Where do I disagree with Dan and Amy enough to say anything? 

• 1976: I go with “All the President's Men,” which I can't stop watching. But something tells me if their choice, “Network,” had won the Oscar, they would've opted for “Rocky.” (See: 1981.) That said, this is such a strong year, before “Rocky” and “Star Wars” changed the way movies were made, that it's hard to make a wrong choice. Although “Bound for Glory,” a good/not great biopic of Woody Guthrie, would've been a wrong choice. 
• 1978: “An Unmarried Woman”? Seriously? Maybe I have to watch it again. Mostly I remember the SCTV parody of this and “Norma Rae” called “My Factory, My Self,” in which the Michael Murphy character keeps breaking down and crying. 
• 1979: “Apocalypse Now” is the obvious choice. I'd make the unobvious one: “Breaking Away.”
• 1980: I like the split here: “Raging Bull” vs. “The Shining.”
• 1981: At first I thought: “'Raiders of the Lost Ark'? Really?” Then I saw the competition. Hmmmm... 
• 1983: I'd go “The Right Stuff.”
• 1985: I like the “Back to the Future” pivot. It's fun. Despite the movie's race-fulfillment fantasy: the white kid teaching the black pros how to rock.
• 1989: “Field of Dreams”? It's not even in my top 10 baseball movies. I believe “Do the Right Thing” came out that year.
• 1995: Agree with Amy here: “Apollo 13” is underrated.
• 1996: Again, with Amy: “Fargo.” Darn tootin'.
• 1997: Hey, they went with “Titanic”! I love that. I probably would've gone “L.A. Confidential” but I like the ballsy choice.
• 1998: “The Thin Red Line,” people. It's not even a question.
• 1999: “The Insider,” people. It's not even a question. 
• 2002: Love me the musical, but not “Chicago.” Should be “The Pianist.” 
• 2004: No mention of “Eternal Sunshine”? Surely that's in the running. 
• 2006: “United 93.”
• 2007: Not “Michael Clayton.” Either “No Country” or “There Will Be Blood” (whose fans remind me of Bernie supporters: a little too rabid, and too willing to ignore the film's flaws).
• 2008: Amy loses it here: “Twilight”????????????????????????????????????????????? “The Wrestler”'s not a bad choice. But to me “Iron Man” > “The Dark Knight.”
• 2009: “Up.”
• 2010: With Amy again: “The Social Network.” Or maybe “True Grit”?
• 2011: “Moneyball”! Nice!!! I'm fine with that. My love of “The Tree of Life” is still there but dampened by Malick's recent output. 2011, btw, was a great year for American movies.
• 2012: “Skyfall”? Not a chance in hell. Boring Bond. 2012, btw, was a bad year for American movies.
• 2013: “The Wolf of Wall Street.” Take that, Vinny!
• 2014: Between the two Bs, “Birdman” and “Boyhood,” there is no wrong answer. 
• 2016: They mention three movies but not “Manchester By the Sea”? That gets my vote.

 Your thoughts? 

A movie about movie people in L.A. is celebrated by movie people in L.A.

Whew.

My main concern last night was that Oscar would follow the lead of BAFTA, which gave “Nocturnal Animals,” one of my least-favorite movies of the year, an astonishing nine nominations earlier this month. That didn't happen this morning. Tom Ford's pointless exercise in ennui and horror came away with a measly one nom, for Michael Shannon in supporting. 

The big story is the 14 nominations “La La Land” landed. Only two other films have ever received that many noms: “Titanic” in 1997, which wound up winning 11, including picture and director; and “All About Eve” in 1950, which wound up with six, including picture and director. Does that mean we're done? Is “La La Land” getting this thing? Should director Damien Chazelle, who just turned 32 but looks 12, make room on his mantle? Probably, and it's not just the sheer number. Think about how much movie people in L.A. love movies about movie people in L.A. What sprawling historical epics were to the '80s (“Reds,” “Chariots,” “Out of Africa,” “Last Emperor”), movies about movie people in L.A. are to the 2010s (“The Artist,” “Argo,” “La La Land”). Take note, future filmmakers. 

I haven't been paying attention much this Oscar season, but I was surprised by the love for “Hacksaw Ridge,” which came away with six noms, including best director for Mel Gibson (hello, you), and the lack of love for “Loving,” which got one: Ruth Negga for best actress. I don't like the word “snubbed” as it relates to Oscar, since we're talking a finite number of slots for a huge amount of talent, but if anyone in the acting categories got snubbed this year it was Joel Edgerton. His performance as Richard Loving was one of my favorites.

Meryl is up gain, for “Florence Foster Jenkins”: She has 20 nominations now, a record in acting. No one's close. (Jack Nicholson and Katherine Hepburn are tied for second with 12. Twelve. Meryl is the Yankees of actors, except we still love her.) Octavia Spencer got nominated again. Apparently she's the first African-American actress to get nominated after winning an Oscar. That's a sad little fact. Dev Patel, supporting for “Lion,” is the third Indian actor to garner a nomination. Viola Davis, meanwhile, for a supporting nod for “Fences,” became not only the most-nominated black actress in Academy history, but, according to Nathaniel Rogers at Film Experience, the most nominated black woman ever. She has three. She wasn't won yet? Yeah, that'll change this year. 

Here are the best pictures:

BEST PICTURE:
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”  

I still need to see “Hacksaw,” “Hidden” and “Lion,” but my vote would go with “Manchester by the Sea,” which sadly seems all-but-forgotten now. Go see it, if you haven't. 

You can find the rest of the nominations on Nathaniel's site. Or pretty much anywhere. 

One thing we won't get this year is an #OscarsSoWhite controversy, which was the furious social-media focus last year. This year was much more inclusive: seven of the 20 acting noms were for people of color, while nearly half of the best picture noms focused on their stories, while more than half (three of the five) documentaries focused on racial matters: “I Am Not Your Negro,” “OJ: Made in America,” and “13th.” 

What's less inclusive this year? The White House and Congress. Win some, lose everything. 

The Oscar ceremony is Sunday, Feb. 26. 

“As an aside, I thought Chris Rock was really good as host (though the girls scout cookie thing dragged a bit), and I thought Louis CK's presentation for Documentary Short was the highlight of the night. But I will say that the way diversity so overwhelmed the Oscars broadcast was a bit disconcerting. It's obvious that the Academy utterly embarrassed itself by not nominating even a single person of color, and yes it was something that the Oscars would have to face head on. But we are also in the midst of an incredible (defined as: impossible to believe) election, and to think that there was barely a joke or word all night about Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz tells you that maybe we're not paying attention.”

-- Joe Posnanski, “Oscar Predictions 2016,” Are asides more interesting than the point of the piece? Sometimes. 

“Finally, it's worth another raspberry for the producers' use of Ride of the Valkyries to 'play off' winners who went on past the 30-second mark. I've always argued that the thank-you speeches are much more interesting than the scripted shtick and that straitjacketing people at perhaps the apex of their careers is both cruel and stupid. But it was particularly outrageous last night — especially when Wagner was invoked to drown out the Hungarian Jew who'd won an Oscar for his Holocaust movie, Son of Saul.”

-- David Edelstein, “David Edelstein Looks Back on the Uneven But Memorable 2016 Oscars,” on Vulture.com. Damn straight. I'm seriously tired of this shit. My favorite Oscar speeches, such as Dustin Hoffman in 1979, require a little room. Give it to them.

Every year we have an Oscar pool, and every year friends tell me they can't do it because they haven't seen enough (or any) of the nominated movies, and every year I tell them the same thing. You're better off that way. You don't have any opinions. You can vote with the head and not the heart. 

The picks below are heart picks; they're what I want to win. Your mileage will vary—particularly if you like “Mad Max.” (See Nathaniel at Film Experience, who inspired this post):

• PICTURE: “The Revenant,” but I'd be happy with “The Big Short” or “Spotlight.” 
• DIRECTOR: Alejandro Inarritu, “The Revenant.”
• ACTOR: Leo, damnit, for “The Revenant.” One, he's most deserving; and, two, let's get this over with already and move on.
• ACTRESS: Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years,” although I'm not passionate here. 
• SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies,” although Sly makes for a better story, and let's face it this is a stacked category. 
• SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Rooney Mara, “Carol.” If she'd been nominated in lead, I would've picked her there, too.
• ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Pete Docter, et al., for “Inside Out.”
• ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Charles Randolph and Adam McKay for “The Big Short,” a book that no one, including its author, could envision as a movie. These guys nailed it. 
• CINEMATOGRAPHY: Emmaneul Lubezki, “The Revenant,” but I'd be happy for the oft-nom'ed, never-won Roger Deakins winning for “Sicario.” 
• FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “Theeb,” yo! Sadly, haven't seen any of the others, even though three (“Son of Saul,” “Mustang” and “A War”) are currently playing in Seattle. Who wants to go this week?  
• ANIMATED FEATURE: “Inside Out,” although I haven't seen most of the others.
• PRODUCTION DESIGN: Adam Stockhausen, et al., for “Bridge of Spies.”
• FILM EDITING: Hank Corwin, “The Big Short.” 
• COSTUME DESIGN: Sandy Powell for “Carol.”
• VISUAL: Andrew Whitehurst, et al., for “Ex Machina,” although I'll take “Star Wars.”
• MAKEUP AND HAIR: Lesley Vanderwalt, et al. for “Mad Max.” I'll give them this one since there are only two other options, and “100 Year Old Man” should not win.  
• ORIGINAL SCORE: No skin in this game. 
• ORIGINAL SONG: Blech. Worst category, year after year.
• SOUND MIXING: I don't know enough about this to have an opinion.
• SOUND EDITING: Seriously, what do I know? 
• DOCUMENTARY: Wow, I haven't seen any of these! When was the last time that happened? 
• DOC SHORT: Someday I have to get off my ass and see the shorts before the Oscars.
• LIVE ACTION SHORT: See above.
• ANIMATED SHORT: See above. 

Et toi?

Was it racist that Idris Elba wasn't nominated? Or would it have been racist to nominate him?

It's less the Oscar nominations now than the noise surrounding the Oscar nominations.

This year, it's been the outrage of #OscarsSoWhite, led, in my Twitter feed anyway, by Sasha Stone of Awards Daily, who has been one relentless piercing note on the subject, despite being part of a group you might as well tag #CriticsSoWhite. Glass houses, kids.

Here's the issue: For the second year in a row, no person of color has been nominated in any of the acting categories. This used to be a regular thing, then it wasn't, now it is again. Here's the history of African-American acting nominations and wins by decade:

So a big surge in the 2000s, followed by a drop-off. Because of that surge? Who knows? I wouldn't mind a more in-depth discussion of that from an industry insider. 

But why am I not more outraged like these other white critics? I don't know. Maybe my outrage meter broke 10 years ago when “Crash” beat “Brokeback Mountain” for best picture. Maybe I assume the worst from the Academy. Maybe I'm not into identity aesthetics. (I'm not into identity aesthetics.)

Or maybe I just don't see the fuss this particular year. Basically I find myself in agreement with Jeff Wells over at Hollywood Elsewhere, who posted a podcast with Sasha and another critic, Erik Anderson, Thursday, adding this on his blog: 

Neither Erik nor Sasha would admit that The Revenant is far and way the likeliest winner of the Best Picture Oscar at this stage. Not would they grapple with my riff about current racial profiling gripes (i.e., why no nominations for Straight Outta Compton and Creed?) not being worth discussing except in the case of Beasts of No Nation's Idris Elba, who definitely should have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor.

That's my feeling. Who else should have been nominated? Alyssa Rosenberg over at The Washington Post has a soft piece in which she lists “8 great performances by black actors” without saying if they should have replaced any of the nominated actors, and if so who. The whole piece is the sound of one white woman patting herself on the back. Her choices: Michael B. Jordan (Creed), O'Shea Jackson Jr. (Straight Outta Compton), Abraham Atta (Beasts of No Nation), Jada Pinkett Smith (Magic Mike XXL), Audra McConald (Rikki and the Flash), Adepero Oduye (The Big Short), John Boyega (Star Wars: The Force Awakens), Teyonnah Paris (Chi-Raq).

Some of these are headscratchers. Oduye? She was in the movie for like a New York minute. Pinkett Smith? In that awful film? Rosenberg says Atta was as great as Jacob Tremblay in “Room,” but of course Tremblay didn't get nominated either. (Kids rarely do in lead roles.) Jordan was fine, and if you'd swapped him out with Matt Damon for “The Martian” I wouldn't have blinked; but Damon lost weight for his role, Jordan built up for his. The Academy rewards you for starving yourself rather than working out with a personal trainer. 

“Beasts of No Nation” might also have suffered with the Academy because 1) it all-but-premiered on Netflix, giving it a “straight to video” vibe; and 2) it was condemned, in some circles, as racist. On Roger Ebert's site, Matt Zoller Seitz brought up the issue of Hollywood's constant depiction of the monstrous African man. Movie critic Charles Muedede was even more insistent. So nominating Elba might have opened up the Academy to a different charge of racism: that the Academy only recognizes the work of scary black men: Denzel in “Training Day”; Forrest Whitaker in “The King of Scotland.” That can be countered with Jamie Foxx in “Ray” and Morgan Freeman in “Million Dollar Baby,” but it would've been out there. There will always be an outrage.

My outrage, such as it is, is for the number of nominations for “Mad Max,” which, to me, is a two-hour-long chase movie, in which bad, ugly people pursue good, good-looking people, and the good, good-looking people win. Somehow this meant critics awards and 10 nominations. 

But mostly I was happy; the Academy recognized some of the best movies I saw in 2015: “The Revenanat,” “The Big Short,” “Spotlight,” and my favorite film, “Theeb,” which became the first movie from Jordan to be nominated in the best foreign language category. It's about a Bedouin boy in the 1910s; it's “Lawrence of Arabia” from a different perspective. Oscars aren't always so white.

Normally I get up early for the Oscar nominations—5:30 a.m. here on the west coast—but I passed this year. What was the rush? To judgment? There didn't seem to be any need. That said, now that it's an impossibly late 7 a.m., I do kind of miss it. Oscar nom morning always has a Christmas morning feeling. What did Santa bring this year? Even if, most of the time, we find a lump of coal in our stocking. 

The lump of coal this year, for many, was the lack of a best picture nomination for Todd Haynes' “Carol,” but that's an art picture more than a narrative-driven picture, and the Academy isn't big on those. Here are the nominees for best picture:

• The Big Short (yes!)
• Bridge of Spies (I guess)
• Brooklyn (thank you!)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (Lord help me)
• The Martian (sure)
• The Revenanat (yes, yes, a thousand times yes)
• Room (ewww)
• Spotlight (mais bien sur)

Director gave us a bit of a surprise. It's the DGA noms (McKay, Miller, McCarthy, Inarritu) but instead of Ridley Scott for “The Martian,” it's Lenny Abrahamson for “Room.” He's an indie Irish director who will turn 50 this year. His last film was “Frank,” in which Michael Fassbender wears a big puppet mask and sings. I didn't see it, as you can tell. I didn't see “Room,” either. The storyline—a woman kept captive for years in a single room while raising the son she had with her captor/rapist—freaks me out. As a novel, it seems more interesting, since, from what I've heard, the perspective is the boy's, and it's an obviously stunted perspective. Almost like Plato's cave shadows. But as a movie? Still, I suppose I should see it. It's part of the conversation. 

No real surprises in the acting categories: Matt, Leo, Eddie, Fassbender, Cranston. Cate, Brie, Jennifer, Charlotte, Saoirse. Oh, I guess some people thought Johnny Depp would be nom'ed for “Black Mass.” Well, so-so movie, so no.

Supporting boys? Sylvester Stallone got a deserved nod for “Creed,” along with Bale (“Big Short”), Hardy (“Revenanat”), Ruffalo (“Spotlight”), and frontrunner Mark Rylance (“Spies”). No love (or mercy) for Paul Dano's turn as Brian Wilson. Jeff Wells is fulminating, I'm sure, but I'll take Rylance, who gave us one of the more indelible characters in 2015. 

Supporting girls? Jennifer Jason Leigh (“Hateful Eight”), Rooney Mara (“Carol”), Rachel McAdams (“Spotlight”), Alicia Vikander (“Danish Girl”) and Katie Winslet (“Steve Jobs”). I'll take Mara. 

Already a brewing controversy that no people of color were nom'ed. Any discussion of this should indicate who it should have been, and who they would replace. I could see Idris Elba for “Beasts,” for example, but in place of who? Plus the Academy opens itself up to the charge that they only nominate scary or bad characters of color. I could also see Michael B. Jordan for “Creed” over, say, Matt Damon in “The Martian.”

A plus: Aaron Sorkin, whom I normally like, didn't get a nomination for “Steve Jobs” despite winning the Golden Globe. Good. The script was the problem. Note to budding screenwriters: never build a movie around product launches. 

Overall, “The Revenant” wound up with 12 noms, “Meh Max” with 10. Via the L.A. Times, here's the complete list of nominees. 

I'll end on a high note: My choice for the best movie of 2015, “Theeb” from Jordan, was nominated in the best foreign language category. It won't win (“Son of Saul”), but it's great that it's been recognized in this way. That's like the best Christmas gift imaginable. Thanks, Santa. 

First, how great is it that the Oscar race is coming down to two artistic, independent and original movies like “Boyhood” and “Birdman”? I've been thinking about this all week and wanted to reiterate it here as a kind of thank you to the cinematic (or Academic) universe, before delving into the dirt of the numbers. 

Second, a mea culpa on my post-Oscar nomination, um, post, “The Bad Box Office of the Best Picture Nominees,” in which I worried over the low, low box office of the nominees, adding, “I could see 'Imitation Game' gaining some moviegoers.” (I was right.) “Will they expand 'Birdman'?” (They did, barely.) “Will they re-release 'Whiplash'?” (Dunno.) And finally:

“Are people psyched to see 'American Sniper' now? Will its distributor let folks outside NYC and LA see it?”

Five days later, it had grossed more than $100 million and counting. It will probably be the biggest box-office hit of 2014. So ... culpa from mea.

Even with that sudden turnaround, though, the Oscar box office numbers are down. 2009 was the first year since World War II with more than five best picture nominees—when they Academy, trying to boost ratings, went from five nominees to 10. A few years later, they opted for 5 to 10. Here's what that b.o. has looked like:

Huge blockbusters the first few years with this format. Then a tapering off.

2014's numbers will continue to rise a bit, maybe another $30-$50 million, mostly on the back of “American Sniper.” So it won't be the worst total b.o. since 2009. But close. 

And it will certainly be the most lopsided. Even “Avatar,” the most dominant box-office hit of all time (unadjusted), didn't dominate its fellow nominees the way “Sniper” has done this year. Eastwood's flick has grossed $319 million domestically. The other seven movies combined? $301 million. 

Here are the numbers, with worldwide gross (domestic + foreign), along with the non-UK foreign market where it's made the most money:

How great that “The Grand Budapest Hotel” did better abroad than any other best picture nominee—even “Sniper”? Little Wes Anderson and his quirky characters. Who knew? Bravo, too, Germany and the Netherlands for the “Boyhood” support. 

See you in a few hours. 

I thought I'd posted this before, maybe I have, but it never hurts to do it again. It's Dustin Hoffman winning for “Kramer vs. Kramer” in 1979 (technically April 14, 1980). 

Keep in mind that this was a period of political and Academy controversy. During the previous decade, George C. Scott turned down his Oscar for “Patton,” Marlon Brando sent up Sacheen Littlefeather to protest the treatment of American Indians in Hollywood films, Bert Schenider said what he said after winning best doc for “Hearts and Minds,” Vanessa Redgrave said what she said after winning best supporting for “Julia.” Hell, only one of the other four nominees even bothered to show up that night.

Plus Hoffman, as he says, had been critical of the Academy. He was critical of the process, of the concept of “winners” and “losers.” So it appears when he gets onstage that he might ... protest. He might reject the award. He places it on the lectern as if it's something he doesn't want. He makes jokes about it, and about himself. 

The speech is a protest of a kind, but it's not sharp-edged and accusatory; it's humanistic and embracing. Particularly these words near the end:

We are part of an artistic family. There are sixty thousand actors in this Academy—pardon me, in the Screen Actors Guild—and probably one-hundred thousand in Equity. And most actors don't work, and a few of us are so lucky to have a chance to work with writing and to work with directing. Because when you're a broke actor, you can't write, you can't paint; you have to practice accents while you're driving a taxi cab. And to that artistic family that strives for excellence, none of you have ever lost.

 Here it is:

Plus, damn, Jane Fonda was hot. 

Earlier this month, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences (the Oscars to you and me) was blasted when it released its 2014 nominations and “Selma” barely made the cut—just picture and song. Director Ava DuVernay didn't become the first black female director ever nominated, and David Oyelowo was passed over for his performance as Martin Luther King, Jr. All 20 acting nominees were white for the first time since 1998, and #OscarsSoWhite became a popular Twitter hashtag.

I shrugged. Surely there were greater Academy insults over the years: the excusion of “Do the Right Thing,” for example, or the inclusion of “Crash.” I'd also heard the “Selma” people didn't get screeners to the Academy members in time, so it all seemed less a matter of racism than a marketing SNAFU. But the outrage machine needs its outrage.

Once upon a time, sure, the Academy, along with Hollywood, wasn't exactly to black actors. Still not, but there's been improvement. These are the number of black actors who have been nominated in the four acting categories:

• 1927-2000: 37 nominations/ 6 Oscars
• 2001-2013: 29 nominations/ 9 Oscars

For the first 73 years of the Academy, black actors averaged a nomination every two years and an Oscar every 12 years. But since 2001, black actors average 2.4 nominations a year and an Oscar almost every year. For all the racism that still exists in Hollywood, the Academy, at least, seems to be making a step in the right direction. 

Then I compared Oscar with SAG.

First, the Academy and the Screen Actors Guild are amazingly in sync. In the last five years, they've agreed on 18 of 20 choices. If you go back 10 years, there's a little more disagreement—but not in lead actor, where Oscar and SAG match exactly.

Here's a list of the SAG winners from the last 10 years, with the eight differences with the Academy highlighted:

*In 2008, SAG awarded Winslet best supporting for “The Reader” while she won the Oscar for best lead.

You see a pattern? In three of the eight differences, SAG chose a black actor and the Academy didn't. Davis, Dee and Murphy were thrown over for Streep (“The Iron Lady”), Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”), and Alan Arkin (“Little Miss Sunshine”). 

You see another pattern? This is an old one, to be sure. With actresses, the Academy has a tendency to go young and hot. For the men, it's a wash: Jim Broadbent instead of Ian McKellen, James Coburn instead of Robert Duvall. But here's a list of women who won Oscars but not SAG statuettes: Penelope Cruz, Marion Cotillard, Jennifer Connelly, Juliette Binoche. It's like a Who's Who of my fantasies. 

But do these patterns mean anything? I'd probably go Arkin over Murphy, too, or Swinton over Dee. With the women, are Oscar voters horny or are SAG voters xenophobic, since three of the four mentioned above are foreign actresses?

The Academy does skew old and white. You have to be asked to join the Academy. You simply have to be working to join SAG. But does this difference lead to racism and sexism? Does it ever lead to, I don't know, wisdom?

We'll see if the patterns continue into the future. In race matters, at least, they won't this year. The Academy got all the flack but in 2014 SAG didn't bother to nominate an actor of color, either. #SAGSoWhite? Or #ScreenersSoLate?

No SAG on these Oscar winners. 

I was thinking about this as I lay in bed this morning. Yeah, I know. I used to think about better things in bed.

But there is a remarkable symmetry to Bennett Miller's films/Oscar nominations:

• Miller has made three feature-length films in his career.
• Each title is one word with three syllables: Capote, Moneyball, Foxcatcher.
• Each has received a nomination for best film (Moneyball) best director (Foxcatcher) or both (Capote).
• Each has received a nomination for lead actor (Hoffman, Pitt, Carell).
• Each has received a nomination in a supporting acting category (Keener, Hill, Ruffalo).
• Each has been nominated for screenplay. 

Here's the chart:

“Moneyball” also got nominated for editing and sound mix, “Foxcatcher” for makeup.

The final similarity? Save Hoffman in 2005, nobody wins. Which, yes, fits with his movies, in which his leads win but lose (Capote), lose but win (Moneyball), or try to buy winning and lose everything (Foxcatcher).

Unsurprisingly, the middle one had the best box office.

Via Rotten Tomatoes:

The worst rated best picture nominee I can remember is “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” from two years ago. It was rotten at 46%.

Every best picture winner in recent years has been ranked 92-98%. The last best picture winner to rank below 90% was “Crash” in 2005: 75%.

“Selma”: highest rated, least nominations. 

There are a lot of stories making the rounds about this year's Oscar nominations. Both “American Sniper” and “Mr. Turner” did surprisingly well while “Selma” was all but denied. As was “The LEGO Movie.” As was “Life Itself,” the documentary about the life and death of film critic Roger Ebert. But then its director Steve James also directed the hugely acclaimed “Hoop Dreams,” which went unnominated in the documentary category in 1994. So ... fool me twice, I guess. 

But for me, the big story is still the box office. Its lack. 

Here are your eight best picture candidates, their domestic box office totals, and their widest distributions:

Reminder: in 2009 the Academy broke a 60-plus-year tradition and expanded its best picture candidates from five to 10 mostly because popular movies weren't getting nominated and people were turning away from the Oscar broadcast. The Academy didn't want to become marginalized. Thus: 10 nominees. Then five to 10. 

And it seemed to work. 

In 2009, the Academy nominated five pictures that grossed more than $100 million domestic, including Nos. 1, 5 and 8 on the year (“Avatar,” “Up” and “The Blind Side”). In 2010, five more with more than $100 mil, including Nos. 1 and 6 on the year (“Toy Story 3” and “Inception”). 2011 was a step back: just one with > $100 mil domestic, “The Help,” which was the 13th most popular movie of the year. In 2012, six movies breached $100 million, but none higher than 13th: Spielberg's “Lincoln.” Last year? Four, including the sixth-highest-grossing film, “Gravity.” 

And this year? The highest-grossing film topped out at $59 million and 53rd place for the year.  

It's actually worse in the acting categories. The highest-grossing film in Best Actor is “Imitation Game” at $42 million; in Best Supporting Actor, it's “The Judge” at $47. Rosamund Pike's “Gone Girl” ($167) and Meryl Streep's “In the Woods” ($106 and climbing) at least get us over the $100 million mark, but they're the only two among the 20 acting candidates. Everythign else is below $50 million.

This will change, obviously, but by how much? “Into the Woods” will do better but not because of Oscar. I could see “Imitation Game” gaining some moviegoers. Will they expand “Birdman”? Will they re-release “Whiplash”? Are people psyched to see “American Sniper” now? Will its distributor let folks outside NYC and LA see it?

It's a bit worrisome. In 2009, when the Academy expanded its best picture category, I created the following to chart to indicate why it had done so:

 The Annual Box Office Rankings for Best Picture Nominees, 1991-2008*

* Best picture winner represented in red.

Then for comparison's sake, I added this one. 

 Here's this year's nominees:

Yes, I'm concerned that the stories we share these days tend to be cartoonish; that there are fewer and fewer serious stories that we all know and care about. I think this is helping an increasingly fragmented and polarized society become more so.

But mostly I'm worried about what the Academy might do to rectify the situation. Particularly if the ratings tank on Feb. 22. 

Among the nominees, Wes Anderson was most popular at the box office. It's a position he's never been in before.

The likeliest candidates. But one of these things is not like the others. 

Before the nominations came out, I thought we were down to four candidates for best picture: “Birdman,” “Boyhood,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “The Imitation Game.” So where are we now that the Academy has released the Kraken?

Here are the Academy's eight nominees for best picture, along with nominations in other relevant categories:

It's rare when a movie wins best picture without its director being nominated (although it happened two years ago with Ben Affleck and “Argo”), so we do seem down to those four.

However, it's even rarer when a movie wins best picture without its editor being nominated (last time: “Ordinary People” in 1980). So if that's the case, then we're down to three.

Screenplay is a wash. It eliminates nothing save “Selma,” which is nominated nowhere else but song. Acting matters since the Academy is mostly made up of actors, and that favors “Birdman,” with three, over “Grand Budapest” with zero. (Although two films this century, “Slumdog Millionaire” in 2008 and “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” in 2003, won best pic without an acting nomination.)

Let's look at that recent history. These are the nominations for each year's best picture winner this century:

I was surprised that “Most noms” is a meaningless category—just six of 14 this century—but it helps to be at least near the top. Last year, both “Gravity” and “American Hustle” had 10 noms, one more than “12 Years.” “Lincoln” had 12 in 2012 (not a bad slogan, actually), while “The Artist” was only one off of “Hugo”'s total of 11 nominations in 2011.

So what does it all mean? 

Under normal circumstances, the lack of an editing nomination should end “Birdman”'s chances. Except voters may give it a pass since it's essentially one long single shot. It's an actors' movie, almost like a play (hence the three acting nominations), and the Academy's acting body should appreciate that.

“Boyhood” has fewer overall noms, but it's got director, editing, two acting, and, perhaps most importantly, heart.  

“The Imitation Game” has all its nominations in a nice, neat row. It's just not a very good movie. It's also the most conventional among the four. “Grand Budapest” is two-dimensional, Andersony and funny, “Boyhood” is episodic and took 12 years to make, “Birdman” is pungent, attacks Hollywood for giving awards “for cartoons and pornography” and ends with a question mark.

My thought? We're down to three. “Birdman,” “Boyhood” and “Imitation Game.” 

My hope? That 12 years of work, and a lot of heart, give “Boyhood” the win.

My fear? The unconventional voters will split among the American indies, allowing the lesser film, “Imitation Game,” to win. 

We'll find out Feb. 22.

Announcing the actresses: Adams out, Cotillard in. C'mon, Marion/ It's time that we began ...

Just when you thought the Oscars were going populist, they pull themselves back out.

In 2009, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences expanded its best picture category from five to 10 (and soon after, anywhere from five to 10), in part, it was believed, because the broadcast, and thus the award, was losing popularity. Big box office hits weren't getting nominated; people tuned out. Thus the expansion. And immediate paydirt! “Avatar,” the biggest hit of 2009, was nom'ed, as was “Toy Story 3,” the biggest box-office hit of 2010. But was this partly an illusion? Would these movies have been nominated anyway? Was it a last gasp of a melding of critically acclaimed and popular? Because the following year, 2011, the biggest hit among the nominees was “The Help,” which topped out at 13th, and in 2012 it was “Lincoln,” which also topped out at 13th. Last year, yes, “Gravity,” the sixth-biggest box office hit of 2013, was nominated. But this year we're definitely back to square one. 

Among the eight best picture nominees, the one at the top of the box-office chart is “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” which grossed $59 million and isn't even among the 50 most popular movies of the year. (It's 53rd.) That's right, Wes Anderson is most popular—a title I'm sure he never thought he'd ever be able to claim. 

In fact, the total domestic gross of the eight nominees, $203 million, is less than the total domestic grosss of “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” ($208 million), which was only the 10th highest-grossing film of the year. 

So here we are again. Just us cinephiles.

Is it better this way? Could any popular movie have been nominated? “Guardians of the Galaxy” maybe? (Right. Sci-fi.)  “Captain America”? (Right. Superhero.) “Interstellar”? “Gone Girl”? “The LEGO Movie”? Hey, how about this? “LEGO,” the fourth highest-grossing movie of the year, and highly critically acclaimed, didn't even get nominated in Best Animated Feature.

Oops.

The Academy went white and male, too. That's the spin you'll probably hear about more. “Selma” was shut out except for picture and song. Its director, Ana DuVarney, didn't get nominated, nor did its lead, David Oyelowo. Nothing for Angelina Jolie as director for “Unbroken” nor Gillian Flynn for best adapted screenplay for “Gone Girl.”

But the obvious follow-up: Should they have been nominated?

I admit I wasn't a big fan of “Gone Girl.” I could see either DuVarney or Oyelowo among the nominees, but both are crowded fields. Oyelowo certainly would've gotten my vote.

Here's the good news: the big winners are two of the best movies of the year: “Birdman” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” each got nine nominations. “Imitation Game” wound up with eight (really?) while “Boyhood” got six. 

The surprise winner was “American Sniper,” Clint Eastwood's late entry into the conversation, which tied “Boyood” with six nominations, include picture, actor, adapted screenplay and editing. Oddly, its most prominent figure, director Eastwood, didn't get nominated.

A pattern, AMPAS? Let's look.

Picture

• “American Sniper”
• “Birdman”
• “Boyhood”
• “The Grand Budapest Hotel“
• ”The Imitation Game“
• ”Selma“
• ”The Theory of Everything“
• ”Whiplash“

Director

• Wes Anderson ”The Grand Budapest Hotel“ 
• A.G. Iñárritu ”Birdman“
• Richard Linklater ”Boyhood“
• Bennet Miller, ”Foxcatcher“
• Morten Tyldum ”The Imitation Game“

Actor

• Steve Carell, ”Foxcatcher“
• Bradley Cooper, ”American Sniper“
• Benedict Cumberbatch, ”The Imitation Game“
• Michael Keaton ”Birdman“
• Eddie Redmayne  ”The Theory of Everything“

Actress

• Marion Cotillard, ”Deux Jours, Une Nuit“
• Felicity Jones ”The Theory of Everything“
• Julianne Moore ”Still Alice“
• Rosamund Pike ”Gone Girl“
• Reese Witherspoon ”Wild“

MISSING: Golden Globes winner Amy Adams for ”Big Eyes.“ 

Supporting Actress

• Patricia Arquette ”Boyhood“
• Laura Dern, ”Wild“
• Keira Knightley ”The Imitation Game“
• Emma Stone ”Birdman“
• Meryl Streep ”Into the Woods“

MISSING: Jessica Chastain for ”A Most Violent Year.“ Which hasn't played anywhere yet. Glad to see Dern there. Knightley? Please.

Supporting Actor

• Robert Duvall, ”The Judge“
• Ethan Hawke, ”Boyhood“
• Edward Norton, ”Birdman“
• Mark Ruffalo, ”Foxcatcher“
• JK Simmons, ”Whiplash“

Original screenplay

• Wes Anderson ”The Grand Budapest Hotel“
• E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, ”Foxcatcher“ 
• Dan Gilroy, ”Nightcrawler“
• A.G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo, ”Birdman“
• Richard Linklater, ”Boyhood“

Adapted screenplay

• Paul Thomas Anderson, ”Inherent Vice“
• Damien Chazelle, ”Whiplash“
• Jason Hall, ”American Sniper“
• Anthony McCarten, ”The Theory of Everything“
• Graham Moore, ”The Imitation Game“

Still don't understand the lack of Nick Hornby love. That's a tough adaptation. Still don't get the Graham Moore love. ”Imitation Game“ was at best a cookie-cutter biopic. Ditto ”Theory of Everything.“ But I'm happy to see Paul Thomas Anderson in there. Not to mentin Mr. Chazelle. 

Animated Feature 

• ”Big Hero 6“
• ”The Boxtrolls“
• ”How to Train Your Dragon 2“
• ”Song of the Sea“
• ”The Tale of the Princess Kaguya“

MISSING: ”The LEGO Movie.“ I've heard ”Song of the Sea“ is beautiful, though. 

Documentary Feature

• ”Citizenfour“
• ”Finding Vivian Maier“
• ”Last Days in Vietnam“
• ”The Salt of the Earth“
• ”Virunga“

MISSING: ”Life Itself.“ Thumbs down.

Cinematography

• Roger Deakins, ”Unbroken“
• Emmanuel Lubezki, ”Birdman“
• Dick Pope, ”Mr. Turner“
• Robert Yeoman, ”The Grand Budapest Hotel“
• Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski,”Ida“ 

Just when you're finally getting the recognition you deserve, the president of the Academy pronounces your name ”Poop.“ Sorry, Dick Pope. Seriously, Academy presidents, do a run-through or something.

Film Editing

• ”American Sniper“
• ”Boyhood“
• ”The Grand Budapest Hotel“
• ”The Imitation Game“
• ”Whiplash“

MISSING: ”Birdman.“ Because of all the single shots? And does this kill its chances for best picture? The last time a film won best picture without being nominated for film editing was in 1980 with ”Ordinary People“: 35 years ago. 

Foreign Language Film 

• ”Ida“ (Poland)
• ”Leviathan“ (Russia)
• ”Tangerines“ (Estonia) 
• ”Timbuktu“ (Mauritiana)
• ”Wild Tales“ (Argentina)

MISSING: ”Force Majeure.“

Production Design

• ”The Grand Budapest Hotel“
• ”The Imitation Game“
• ”Interstellar“
• ”Into the Woods“
• ”Mr. Turner“

A lot of prognosticators got this way wrong. They were thinking ”Birdman“ and ”Maleficent“ and ”Unbroken.“ But the Academy was not kind to Angelina Jolie this year. Too old, I guess. 

Costume Design

• ”The Grand Budapest Hotel“ 
• ”Inherent Vice“
• ”Into the Woods“
• ”Maleficent“
• ”Mr. Turner“

Original Score

• Alexandre Desplat, ”The Grand Budapest Hotel“
• Alexandre Desplat, ”The Imitation Game“
• Jóhann Jóhannsson ”The Theory of Everything“
• Gary Yershon, ”Mr. Turner“
• Hans Zimmer ”Interstellar“ 

Original Song

• ”Everything is Awesome“ (Shawn Patterson, Tegan and Sara, ”The LEGO Movie“) 
• ”Glory“ (John Legend and Common, ”Selma“) 
• ”Grateful“ (Diane Warren, ”Beyond the Lights“)
• ”I'm Not Gonna Miss You“ (Glen Campbell, Julian Raymond, ”Glen Campbell ... I'll Be Me“)
• ”Lost Stars“ (Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois, ”Begin Again“)

Makeup and Hairstyling

• ”Foxcatcher“
• ”The Grand Budapest Hotel“
• ”Guardians of the Galaxy“

Sound Editing

• ”American Sniper“
• ”Birdman“
• ”The Hobbit“
• ”Interstellar“
• ”Unbroken“

Sound Mixing

• ”American Sniper“
• ”Birdman“
• ”Interstellar“
• ”Unbroken“
• ”Whiplash“

Visual Effects

• ”Captain America: The Winter Soldier“
• ”Dawn of the Planet of the Apes“
• ”Guardians of the Galaxy“
• ”Interstellar“
• ”X-Men: Days of Future Past“

Animated Short

• “The Bigger Picture”
• ”The Damn Keeper“
• ”Feast“
• ”Me and My Moulton“
• “A Single Life”

Documentary Short 

• “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
• “Joanna”
• “Our Curse”
• “The Reaper (La Parka)” 
• “White Earth“

Live Action Short 

• “Aya”
• “Boogaloo and Graham”
• “Butter Lamp”
• “Parvaneh”
• “The Phone Call“

Thoughts? I'm sure I'll have more as the day progresses. 

”Birdman“ leads with nine nomations. ”How did we end up here ...?"