PGAs Split, SAG Goes 'Hustle'
Over the weekend, “American Hustle” won the Screen Actors Guild award for outstanding cast while the Producers Guild gave its PGA for best film to “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity.” The split-vote win was the first in PGA history.
What does ths mean for the Oscars? It means we have a bit of a race.
Here are the DGAs, PGAs and SAG awards as arbiter of the final Oscar choice since 1996:
|Year||SAG - CAST||PGA||DGA||Oscar|
|2013||American Hustle||12 Years a Slave/ Gravity|
|2011||The Help||The Artist||The Artist||The Artist|
|2010||The King's Speech||The King's Speech||The King's Speech||The King's Speech|
|2009||Inglourious Bastards||The Hurt Locker||The Hurt Locker||The Hurt Locker|
|2008||Slumdog Millionaire||Slumdog Millionaire||Slumdog Millionaire||Slumdog Millionaire|
|2007||No Country for Old Men||No Country for Old Men||No Country for Old Men||No Country for Old Men|
|2006||Little Miss Sunshine||Little Miss Sunshine||The Departed||The Departed|
|2005||Crash||Brokeback Mountain||Brokeback Mountain||Crash|
|2004||Sideways||The Aviator||Million Dollar Baby||Million Dollar Baby|
|2003||Lord of the Rings||Lord of the Rings||Lord of the Rings||Lord of the Rings|
|2001||Gosford Park||Moulin Rouge!||A Beautiful Mind||A Beautiful Mind|
|2000||Traffic||Gladiator||Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon||Gladiator|
|1999||American Beauty||American Beauty||American Beauty||American Beauty|
|1998||Shakespeare in Love||Saving Private Ryan||Saving Private Ryan||Shakespeare in Love|
|1997||The Full Monty||Titanic||Titanic||Titanic|
|1996||The Birdcage||The English Patient||The English Patient||The English Patient|
The SAG cast award is the worst arbiter (9 of 17) while the DGA is the best (14 of 17). The PGA is in the middle (12 of 17), although it has a good track record recently: 6 for the last 6. Obviously that won't happen this year.
How often has SAG and PGA differed and the Oscar gone to the SAG choice? Only twice, in 1998 and 2005, and both were controversial Oscar picks: “Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan” (ick) and “Crash” over “Brokeback” (ickier). “Hustle” wouldn't be that (controversial), if it came to that. But I doubt it will.
In terms of Oscar prognostication, it's down to the DGAs, which are announced Jan. 25. Hey, how cool if they gave it to Martin Scorsese for “The Wolf of Wall Street”? Then we wouldn't know what to think on March 2.
Other SAG awards:
- MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”
- FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
- MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
- FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Lupita Nyong'o, “12 Years A Slave”
SAG's lead actor, by the way, has been Oscar's lead actor since 2003, when SAG gave it to Johnny Depp for “Pirates” and the Oscar went to Sean Penn for “Mystic River.”
SAG and the split PGAs: past, paster, future.
Twitter: @ErikLundegaardTweets by @ErikLundegaard