Tuesday December 15, 2020
I was talking to my wife the other day and mentioned 538.com, Nate Silver's site about politics and its discontents, and she said, “Don't mention them to me ever again!” Me: “Huh? Why?” “Oh, they got the election so wrong.” This might've been in November when emotions were still raw. Or rawer. I paused for a moment, then said, “Actually they were pretty close. I think they only missed a couple of states.”
Here is their final prediction. I took a screenshot on Election Day.
Wrong on two: Florida and North Carolina. That's it. Everything else was right. They even had Georgia blue. They even had Pennsylvania as the state that would put Biden over the top. Doubt they thought it would be the Saturday morning after the Tuesday election, but you never know. Throughout, their watchword was caution.
Yesterday, in front-page news that is, in normal times, barely news, electors around the country all remained faithful and Joe Biden was once again elected president of the United States—for like the 12th time since Nov. 3. So much winning. Not tired of it yet.