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Monday August 08, 2016
Box Office: 'Suicide Squad' Blasts Through Negative Reviews to Gross $135 Million
Last laugh? Maybe not.
*Sigh.*
“Suicide Squad” was so universally panned that fanboys wanted to shut down the Rotten Tomatoes site, where its shame, its 26% rating, was visible for all to see. But the American moviegoer, or at least those fanboys, still came out in droves. The David Ayer-directed supervillain slash-em-up/blow-em-away grossed $135 million domestically (and $132 abroad), which, if it holds, is our 19th-biggest opener ever.
So the critics lose again, right? Haw haw on us?
Yes and no.
As I was pondering “Suicide”'s numbers, I casually wondered whether any movie that had grossed more on opening weekend had a lower RT rating. Yes, it turns out: “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1,” which grossed $138 million domestically during its Nov. 2011 opening weekend despite a 24% rating.
As I was putting together this info, I also noticed something that should be obvious to everyone by now: Blockbusters with low RT ratings tend to have shorter legs than blockbusters with high RT ratings.
Here's a chart of the 20 highest-grossing openers of all time (sans “Suicide”) sorted by their Rotten Tomatoes rating:
Rnk | Movie | Opening $$ | RT% | Open % |
7 | Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 | $169,189,427 | 96% | 44.4% |
10 | The Dark Knight | $158,411,483 | 94% | 29.7% |
20 | Finding Dory | $135,060,273 | 94% | 28.5% |
1 | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | $247,966,675 | 92% | 26.5% |
3 | Marvel's The Avengers | $207,438,708 | 92% | 33.3% |
5 | Captain America: Civil War | $179,139,142 | 90% | 44.0% |
11 | The Hunger Games: Catching Fire | $158,074,286 | 89% | 37.2% |
9 | The Dark Knight Rises | $160,887,295 | 87% | 35.9% |
12 | The Hunger Games | $152,535,747 | 84% | 37.4% |
6 | Iron Man 3 | $174,144,585 | 79% | 42.6% |
14 | Furious 7 | $147,187,040 | 79% | 41.7% |
4 | Avengers: Age of Ultron | $191,271,109 | 75% | 41.7% |
2 | Jurassic World | $208,806,270 | 71% | 32.0% |
13 | Spider-Man 3 | $151,116,516 | 63%* | 44.9% |
18 | Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest | $135,634,554 | 54% | 32.0% |
16 | The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 | $141,067,634 | 49% | 48.3% |
15 | The Twilight Saga: New Moon | $142,839,137 | 28% | 48.2% |
8 | Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | $166,007,347 | 27% | 50.3% |
17 | The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 | $138,122,261 | 24% | 49.1% |
* Yeah, I can't believe “Spider-Man 3” got a fresh rating, either.
That last column is the percentage a movie's opening gross contributed to its overall gross. You want a low number there; it means your movie lasted. It didn't nova and then die. And generally, the lower the RT rating, the higher that percentage.
A fresh blockbuster (> 60%) makes an average of 37% of its total gross during its opening weekend; a rotten one, 45.5%. The extremes are even more extreme. A blockbuster in the 90s makes about one-third of its total gross in the first three days; a blockbuster in the 20s like “Suicide Squad”? Half. They make noise for three days, then crickets.
Here are two recent examples. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” is the biggest opener ever: $247 million. But it got great reviews, great word-of-mouth, and grossed nearly four times that: $936 million. “Batman v Superman” is the eighth-biggest opener ever: $166 million. But it got shitty reviews, shittier word of mouth, and grossed just twice that: $330.
If “Star Wars” had grossed just twice its opening, it would've stopped shy of half a billion rather than bumping up against a billion. The difference between a good and bad blockbuster can be half a billion dollars. And that's just domestically.
So for “Suicide” and its shitty 26% rating, I expect to see a big dropoff next weekend, and a total domestic gross of around $270 million. Which ain't victory for critics; but it ain't exactly victory for Warner Bros. either.