erik lundegaard

Movies - Awards posts

Monday June 21, 2021

Is a Good Comedy Better than a Good Drama?

OK, nerd alert: I keep a spreadsheet of movie awards, guild and otherwise, and how they match up against the Oscars, and update it each season. Mostly best picture stuff. Anyway, in the last Oscar crush, my eyes wandered over to the Golden Globe Awards for Drama and Comedy/Musical, and I kind of idly scanned the list. And then not so idly I began to realize that generally I preferred the GG winners for Comedy/Musical (usually thought of as a frivilous category) over the GG for Drama (serious and important).

Here they are since 1970. My preferences are in yellow. If there's no yellow, it's a wash (“Nomadland,” “Borat”), or I haven't seen one of the movies ('Beauty and the Beast,“ ”Green Card,“ ”Arthur,“ ”The Turning Point,“ ”Fiddler on the Roof“). 

YEAR DRAMA COMEDY/MUSICAL
2020 Nomadland Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
2019 1917 Once Upon a Time ... In Hollywood
2018 Bohemian Rhapsody Green Book
2017 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Lady Bird
2016 Moonlight La La Land
2015 The Revenant The Martian
2014 Boyhood Birdman
2013 12 Years a Slave American Hustle
2012 Argo Les Miserables
2011 The Descendants The Artist
2010 The Social Network The Kids Are Alright
2009 Avatar The Hangover
2008 Slumdog Millionaire Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2007 Atonement Sweeney Todd
2006 Babel Dreamgirls
2005 Brokeback Mountain Walk the Line
2004 The Aviator Sideways
2003 Lord of the Rings Lost in Translation
2002 The Hours Chicago
2001 A Beautiful Mind Moulin Rouge
2000 Gladiator Almost Famous
1999 American Beauty Toy Story 2
1998 Saving Private Ryan Shakespeare in Love
1997 Titanic As Good As It Gets
1996 The English Patient Evita
1995 Sense and Sensibility Babe
1994 Forrest Gump The Lion King
1993 Schindler's List Mrs. Doubtfire
1992 Scent of a Woman The Player
1991 Bugsy Beauty and the Beast
1990 Dances with Wolves Green Card
1989 Born on the 4th of July Driving Miss Daisy
1988 Rain Man Working Girl
1987 The Last Emperor Hope and Glory
1986 Platoon Hannah and Her Sisters
1985 Out of Africa Prizzi's Honor
1984 Amadeus Romancing the Stone
1983 Terms of Endearment Yentl
1982 E.T. The Extraterrestrial Tootsie
1981 On Golden Pond Arthur
1980 Ordinary People Coal Miner's Daughter
1979 Kramer vs. Kramer Breaking Away
1978 Midnight Express Heaven Can Wait
1977 The Turning Point The Goodbye Girl
1976 Rocky A Star is Born
1975 One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest The Sunshine Boys
1974 Chinatown The Longest Yard
1973 The Excorcist American Graffiti
1972 The Godfather Cabaret
1971 The French Connection Fiddler on the Roof
1970 Love Story M*A*S*H

I would've assumed a landslide for Drama, but it's 18-15 in favor of Comedy/Musical. Your mileage may differ.

Love that the raunchy Burt Reynolds prison/football comedy ”The Longest Yard“ got a Golden Globe. There should be more of that. And paired with ”Chinatown"? That's a fun year. If you had to do a double-feature, which year would you go with? I like '72, '74, '82, '14 and '17. 

Posted at 07:00 AM on Monday June 21, 2021 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Sunday February 02, 2020

Brits Honor ‘1917’

Sam Mendes' “1917” won the BAFTA for best film. Congrats. Wasn't my favorite, or even in my top 10 probably (getting on that, yes), but so it goes. But does this mean anything for Oscar? 

Well, yes and no. 

In the last five years, best pictures across the pond haven't agreed once:

Year BAFTA Oscar
2018 Roma Green Book
2017 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Shape of Water
2016 La La Land Moonlight
2015 The Revenant Spotlight
2014 Boyhood Birdman

In the six years before that, they didn‘t disagree once:

Year BAFTA Oscar
2013 12 Years a Slave 12 Years a Slave
2012 Argo Argo
2011 The Artist The Artist
2010 The King’s Speech The King's Speech
2009 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
2008 Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire

And before that it was a mixed bag—though mostly disagreeable. This century, the two bodies have agreed eight out of 19 times, but I get the feeling this season will make it nine out of 20. I'm getting a “1917” vibe for Oscar. Maybe becaue I don't want it to win? 

In acting, it was the usual suspects: Joaquin, Renee, Laura and Brad. I expect them all to pick up hardware next week, too.

Joaquin spoke out against systemic racism. Rebel Wilson brought the house down with a very funny intro to, I assume, best director. Now if she could only be this funny in any movie we pay to see her in. 

Ta.

Posted at 09:19 PM on Sunday February 02, 2020 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Sunday January 26, 2020

All Over But the Speeches? ‘1917’ Wins DGA

Last night Sam Mendes won the Directors Guild Award for his WWI film “1917,” adding to the hardware he, and his film, have already collected. The week before it won the Producers Guild Award. Two weeks before that, the Golden Globe for Best Drama. It's been nominated for nine BAFTA awards and 10 Oscars. It's rolling.

So what are the chances it rolls its way into the Oscar for best picture? 

At this point, pretty good. This century, the PGAs and DGAs have agreed 12 times (1917 is the lucky 13th), and of those 12 the Academy went with the DGA/PGA pick 10 times. In 2005, to its perpetual embarassment, the Academy chose “Crash” over “Brokeback”; and for the 2016 season, in an envelope mixup for the ages, it went “Moonlight” over “La La Land.” Otherwise, lockstep.

YEAR DGA PGA OSCAR
2019 1917 1917  ???
2018 Roma Green Book Green Book
2017 The Shape of Water The Shape of Water The Shape of Water
2016 La La Land La La Land Moonlight
2015 The Revenanat The Big Short Spotlight
2014 Birdman Birdman Birdman
2013 Gravity Gravity/12 Years a Slave 12 Years a Slave
2012 Argo Argo Argo
2011 The Artist The Artist The Artist
2010 The King's Speech The King's Speech The King's Speech
2009 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
2008 Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire
2007 No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men
2006 The Departed Little Miss Sunshine The Departed
2005 Brokeback Mountain Brokeback Mountain Crash
2004 Million Dollar Baby The Aviator Million Dollar Baby
2003 Lord of the Rings Lord of the Rings Lord of the Rings
2002 Chicago Chicago Chicago
2001 A Beautiful Mind Moulin Rouge! A Beautiful Mind
2000 Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Gladiator Gladiator

It feels like we‘re done. Shame. It’s never much fun when we feel like we're done.

Posted at 09:23 AM on Sunday January 26, 2020 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Sunday January 19, 2020

‘1917’ Wins PGA, ‘Parasite’ Gets SAG

Last night the Producers Guild of America chose its best for 2019, and for feature film they went Sam Mendes' WWI drama “1917.” Mark Harris tweeted this morning that “1917” must have a real chance at Oscar now, considering how much it's being attacked. Truer words.

But how much of a harbinger is it? Well, since the Academy went to the preferential ballot in 2009, this has been the PGA's track record:

Year PGA Oscar
2019 1917 ??
2018 Green Book Green Book
2017 The Shape of Water The Shape of Water
2016 La La Land Moonlight
2015 The Big Short Spotlight
2014 Birdman Birdman
2013 Gravity/12 Years a Slave 12 Years a Slave
2012 Argo Argo
2011 The Artist The Artist
2010 The King's Speech The King's Speech
2009 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker

For the first few years of this, there was a lockstep between PGA, DGA and Oscar. They all chose the same. Since 2013, divergence. In that divergence, though, PGA has been the more accurate indicator of best picture than DGA, SAG-cast, or even the Golden Globes, which, with both drama and comedy/musical, has two chances to get it right.  

Overall, in the 10 years since preferential ballots began, the harbinger count favors PGA: 

  • PGA: 7.5
  • DGA: 6
  • GGs: 6
  • SAG-Cast: 4

I still say it's down to three movies: “1917,” “Once Upon a Time...” and “Irishman.” Wouldn't be surprised if we got another split: Tarantino for director, “1917” for picture.

UPDATE: Tonight, the Screen Actors Guild gave its cast award to “Parasite.” I think it's the first time a guild award has gone to a foreign film. Congrats all around. That said, as per above, it doesn't mean much for the best picture Oscar race. Last year, SAG cast went to “Black Panther.” The year before, it was “Three Billobards,” and the year before that, “Hidden Figures.” None came close to best picture. 

Posted at 04:36 PM on Sunday January 19, 2020 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Wednesday January 08, 2020

Guilds Announce, Oscar Race Tightens

The three big guild nominations were announced this week—PGA, DGA and WGA—and it's narrowed down the best picture race a bit:

MOVIE PGA DGA WGA
The Irishman x x x
JoJo Rabbit x x x
1917 x x x
Parasite x x x
Once Upon a Time ... In Hollywood x x  
Knives Out x   x
Joker x   x
Little Women x   x
Marriage Story x   x
Ford v. Ferrari x    
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood     x
Booksmart     x

OK, so the DGA can do the narrowing on its own.

As I wrote last year, only twice in its 71-year history has the DGA not nominated the director of the movie that eventually won the Oscar for best picture. (For sticklers, these were: Olivier, “Hamlet,” 1948; Beresford, “Driving Miss Daisy,” 1989; both received no DGA nom.) If this holds, we‘re down to five movies.

Actually, make that four. No way the Academy will go “JoJo Rabbit.”

And has a foreign-language film ever won best picture? No. Not even “Roma.” So we seem to be down to three:

  • 1917
  • The Irishman
  • Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

“Irishman” also has that Netflix/streaming problem, which might take away votes. Maybe it’s two? Maybe it's QT's year?

Oscar noms take place Monday, Jan. 13. Not sure why the change from the traditional Tuesday. Is someone at the Academy into “disruption”? Thrilling. 

Posted at 01:34 PM on Wednesday January 08, 2020 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Sunday December 08, 2019

LA Critics Pick ‘Parasite’

I like that the LA Film Critics includes runner-ups. It's like a built-in discussion. Hell, I'd be cool with top 3. The Oscars is a zero-sum game in comparison.

Anyway, this is that body's choices for 2019, along with a few thoughts from me:

I‘ve seen both; I’m hoping there's better. I already think there's better, but I get the appeal of these. 

  • Director: Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
  • Runner-up: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)

Same same. Neither is a bad pick.

  • Actor: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
  • Runner-up: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

Haven't seen “Pain and Glory” but Adam Driver is among my front-runners, along with Joaquin Phoenix and Leo DiCaprio—neither of whom seem to be getting much critic love at this point in the season.

  • Actress: Mary Kay Place (Diane)
  • Runner-up: Lupita Nyong'o (Us)

Apparently MKP is great in “Diane,” a way under-the-radar movie I‘ll have to check out. Lupita is my frontrunner. 

  • Supporting Actor: Song Kang Ho (Parasite)
  • Runner-up: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

The Toronto critics went with Brad Pitt in “Once Upon a Time...” That’s my choice. 

  • Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
  • Runner-up: Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell)

Need to see “Hustlers.” So far, Zhao, the grandmother in “The Farewell, is my choice. 

  • Screenplay: Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
  • Runner-up: Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won (Parasite)

Sure.

  • Documentary: American Factory
  • Runner-up: Apollo 11

I need to see ”Apollo 11" soon. Shame I didn't on the big screen. 

More here.

Posted at 03:04 PM on Sunday December 08, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Tuesday December 03, 2019

National Board of Review Plugs ‘The Irishman’

FLASH! The National Board of Review announces its best movie of the year! And its top 10! Which doesn't include the best movie of the year! So top 2-11!

It's always fun when NBR makes its annual announcements, because it's the critics org that goes first; and it's always not fun because their choices are often headscratching or dull. Or both. The NBR is like the New Hampshire primary if no one gave a shit who won the New Hampshire primary. They‘re your grandfather’s critics group.

And like your grandfather, they love themselves some Clint Eastwood. Quick question: Why is “Jersey Boys” significant in NBR's recent awards history? Because it's the first movie since 2003 that Clint Eastwood directed that didn't at least make NBR's top 10. Or 11.

YEAR MOVIE NBR Award
2003
Mystic River
#1
2004
Million Dollar Baby
Top 10
2006
Letters from Iwo Jima
#1
2006
Flags of our Fathers
Top 10
2008 Top 10
2008
Changeling
Top 10
2009 Top 10
2010 Top 10
2011 Top 10
2014 Top 10
2014  
2016 Top 10
2018
The Mule
 
2018
The 15:17 to Paris
 
2019
Richard Jewell
Top 10

That's nine movies in a row, including such forgettable fare as “Changeling,” “Invictus,” “Hereafter” and “J. Edgar.” Then he got two more, followed by two 2018 passes. (For a good review of “The Mule,” please consult John Mulaney.) Now he's back in their good graces with “Richard Jewell,” about the security guard who saved lives during a 1996 bombing ... and was then accused of having planted it. He was pilloried in the press. So Eastwood pillories the press—along with, it looks like from the trailer, the FBI. One nice thing about that story? He won't have to lie to make his small-government case the way he did with “Sully.” 

(Oh yeah, and what about that odd “Come back when you‘re black” line to Frank Valli by a 1959 A&R man in “Jersey Boys”? At a time when a white singer sounding like a black man is what every A&R man dreamed of? Is Eastwood implying that somehow black people had it easier? In 1959? I need to do a bigger piece on Eastwood some day.)

So here’s NBR's 2-11 for 2019:

  • “1917”
  • “Dolemite is My Name”
  • “Ford v Ferrari”
  • “Jojo Rabbit”
  • “Knives Out”
  • “Marriage Story”
  • “Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood”
  • “Richard Jewell”
  • “Uncut Gems”
  • “Waves”

I haven't seen most of these yet, but I can't believe “The Farewell” didn't make the cut—just NBR's top 10 indies, along with “Judy” (which looks horrendous). Meanwhile, “Judy”'s Rene Zellwegger garnered the actress award, while Adam Sandler (!) won the actor. No snarky comment there—he looks great in the trailer. (That said: Leo? Joaquin?)

They gave director to Quentin Tarantino, his first since he won for “Pulp Fiction” back in 1994. NBR's director history is interesting. Name the three NBR directing awards Martin Scorsese has won. Ready? “The Age of Innocence,” “The Departed” and “Hugo.” The ones you immediately think of when you think Scorsese. How about the one time Spielberg won? “Empire of the Sun.” Again. And for all their Eastwood love, he's won director only twice: “American Sniper” and ... “Invictus.” Yes. “Invictus.” They loved “Invictus.” Freeman won Best Actor for it, too.

This year, NBR's best movie was Scorsese's “The Irishman.” Which ... sure.

Posted at 02:32 PM on Tuesday December 03, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Monday February 11, 2019

Roma and Rami's BAFTA Reunion

The “Roma” team, clutching another award, via satellite.

Yesterday, the Brits held their Oscars, the BAFTAs, and it was the usual suspects this awards season: Roma and Rami. “The Favourite” was also a favorite, being a British monarchy tale seasoned with some Greek astringency, but it didn't win Outstanding Film; it won the lesser Outstanding British Film, which still seems the saddest of categories to me. Does any other country's film awards have a special category for their own country? Do the Golden Horse Awards, for example, have “Best Taiwanese Film”? No. Just the Brits do it. A consequence of their “special relationship” with Hollywood, I suppose.

Anyway, here they are: 

  • Outstanding Film – Roma
  • Outstanding Director – Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
  • Outstanding Leading Actress – Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
  • Outstanding Leading Actor – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Outstanding Supporting Actress – Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
  • Outstanding Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Green Book
  • Outstanding Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
  • Outstanding Original Screenplay – The Favourite
  • Outstanding British Film – The Favourite
  • Outstanding Film Not in the English Language – Roma
  • Outstanding Documentary – Free Solo
  • Outstanding Cinematography – Roma
  • Outstanding Special Visual Effects – Black Panther
  • Outstanding Costume Design – The Favourite
  • Outstanding Production Design – The Favourite
  • Outstanding Editing – Vice
  • Outstanding Animated Film – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse

Thoughts: Editing for “Vice”? Good god. Also “BlackkKlansman” for adapated screenplay? They adapted poorly—going for the ‘fros of ’72 rather than the right-wing resurgence of ‘79. That’s where the story takes place and where the true story is. 

Nice win for “Free Solo”; my friend Erika is happy. 

Malek seems a shoo-in now. Glad Coleman won here and hope Glenn Close wins in Hollywood—just to end it already. Close should‘ve won supporting for “Garp” back in ’82 (over Jessica Lange, whom I loved in “Tootsie”), and then we wouldn't be in this situation. You could also say for “Albert Nobbs” in 2011 over Meryl's “Iron Lady” but that was the year Viola Davis got robbed. The first year she got robbed.

Does the “Roma” win here mean anything for the Academy? Who knows? BAFTA and Oscar's best films didn't agree at all from 2004 to 2007; then they agreed every year from 2008 to 2013; then they haven't agreed since. Nor should they. But I wouldn't be surprised if this is the year they do. There's no real option, other than “The Favourite,” which couldn't even win with the Brits. Every other nominee is problematic. A superhero movie? A shitty music biopic? An otherwise good true-life period road film in which the white guy teaches the black guy everything—including about black culture—and was written by the white guy's son?

We'll find out Feb. 24. 

Posted at 03:08 PM on Monday February 11, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Sunday February 03, 2019

When the Guilds Disagree

Since the SAG Cast Award was created in 1996, there have been five years when all three guilds disagreed on feature film. This year is the fifth.

So which guild tends to win out at the Oscars? For best picture? It's a mixed bag.

Year DGA PGA SAG - CAST
2018 Roma Green Book Black Panther
2015 The Revenanat The Big Short Spotlight
2004 Million Dollar Baby The Aviator Sideways
2001 A Beautiful Mind Moulin Rouge! Gosford Park
2000 Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Gladiator Traffic

Follow-up: Does that mean this year's best picture winner is going to be one of these three films? Most likely. There's only been one year since ‘96 when a film that didn’t win any of the guilds won best picture: In 2016, “Hidden Figures” won SAG Cast, and “La La Land” won PGA and DGA, but “Moonlight” famously won best picture. That was the other shocking thing that night at the Oscars: It wasn't just the envelope screw up; it was a non-guild winner winning best picture, which was unprecedented. 

Posted at 08:09 AM on Sunday February 03, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Sunday February 03, 2019

Cuaron Wins 2018 DGA for ‘Roma’

All roads lead to “Roma.” 

Last night, Alfonso Cuaron's “Roma” won the Director's Guild Award for feature film, which pretty much guarantees Cuaron will win the best director Oscar on Feb. 24.

This century, the only years a director won the DGA and didn't win the Oscar were in 2000, when Ang Lee won the DGA for “Crouching Tiger' but the Academy gave it to Steven Soderbergh for the already forgotten ”Traffic“; and in 2012, when Ben Affleck won the DGA for ”Argo“ but wasn't nominated for an Oscar, so, maybe as a makeup call, it went to Ang Lee for the already forgotten ”Life of Pi.“

The one thing I could see happenng? Or maybe wanting to happen? Spike Lee winning it, ”Departed“-style, for ”BlacKkKlansman,“ since he has zero best director Oscars (or DGAs, for that matter), and Cuaron has the one (for ”Gravity“). But if it was really about the film, Cuaron should win.

What's not guaranteed? ”Roma" winning best picture. It used to go: DGA winner would win best director, whose movie would win best picture. But that cord has been cut in recent years. 

Year DGA AA Director? AA Picture?
2017 Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water Y Y
2016 Damien Chazelle, La La Land Y  
2015 Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant Y  
2014 Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman Y Y
2013 Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity Y  
2012 Ben Affleck, Argo   Y
2011 Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist Y Y
2010 Tom Hooper, The King's Speech Y Y
2009 Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker Y Y

On the other hand, what else is there? Nothing I'd vote for. 

Posted at 07:41 AM on Sunday February 03, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Monday January 28, 2019

SAG Passes Oscar a Blunt

Last night, in Hollywood, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) doled out its annual awards. For Oscar watchers, it's noteworthy because SAG winners tend to go on to win their respetive Oscars. In the last five years, among the big four awards (Actress, Actor, supportings), the Academy has agreed with SAG 18 of 20 times—or 90 percent. In ‘16, SAG went Denzel over Casey Affleck, and in ’15 it went Idris Elba over Mark Rylance. That's it. The only disagreements. 

Add another. Last night, SAG chose the following:

  • Lead actor: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
  • Lead actress: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
  • Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
  • Supporting actress: Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”

Since Blunt's performance wasn't nominated by the Academy, that one's already out. So, at best, 3 of 4. But I don't think it‘ll even be that. I can see Malek and Close, but Ali winning again, so soon after “Moonlight”? I’m assuming it's Adam Driver in “BlacKkKlansman,” Sam Elliott given a kind of lifetime nod for “A Star is Born,” or Richard E. Grant for “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” But I‘ve been wrong before. 

“Black Panther” also won the SAG cast award, which many posit as a precursor to best picture. Nope. Since they began SAG cast in ’96, it's correlated with best pic only 11 of 23 times.

Here's the recent history. Yellow highlight indicates discrepancy with Oscar. 

Year Lead Actor Lead Actress Supporting Actor Supporting Actress
2018 Rami Malek Glenn Close Mahershala Ali Emily Blunt
2017 Gary Oldman Frances McDormand Sam Rockwell Allison Janey
2016 Denzel Washington Emma Stone Mahershala Ali Viola Davis
2015 Leonardo DiCaprio Brie Larson Idris Elba Alicia Vikander
2014 Eddie Redmayne Julianne Moore J.K. Simmons Patricia Arquette
2013 Matthew McConaughey Cate Blanchett Jared Leto Lupita Nyong'o
2012 Daniel Day-Lewis Jennifer Lawrence Tommy Lee Jones Anne Hathaway
2011 Jean Dujardin Viola Davis Christopher Plummer Octavia Spencer
2010 Colin Firth Natalie Portman Christian Bale Melissa Leo

Feb. 24.

Posted at 09:50 AM on Monday January 28, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  

Sunday January 20, 2019

‘Green Book’ Wins PGA Award

Green Book wins PGA

Driving Misinformation?

“Green Book,” the anodyne-yet-controversial update of “Driving Miss Daisy” with the racial positions reversed, won the Producers Guild Award, or PGA, last night in Hollywood. 

What does this mean? Historically, it means the movie has a 66% chance of winning best picture at the Academy Awards. That's the numbers from this century. (See below.)

The 10 PGA nominees weren't exactly stellar anyway, since 2018 was a fairly lousy year for American movies. If I had to rank them I'd go:

  1. Roma
  2. The Favourite
  3. A Star is Born
  4. A Quiet Place
  5. Green Book
  6. Black Panther
  7. Vice
  8. Bohemian Rhapsody
  9. BlacKkKlansman
  10. Crazy Rich Asians

There's a big dropoff after 1) and another big dropoff after 3). So “Green Book” winning is a kind of middle-of-the-road pick by the PGA. For an anodyne road picture. 

Well, “anodyne.” What struck me when first seeing the film, which is based on a true story, is how quickly its racist chauffeur overcomes his racism. It shows up in the first act and never again. He's also not homophobic. In 1962. He also has to show the black guy black culture. All of that. He's got the biggest heart of any man out there, and guess what? The screenplay was co-written by his son! Who, oh right, had a habit of retweeting racist accusations Donald Trump made. So apparently racism is harder to overcome than Vallelanga or Hollywood would have us believe. (See also: yesterday.) 

The Academy has become a bit more diverse in recent years, a consequence of the #OscarsSoWhite viral campaign, so maybe they‘ll be able to go another route. The two surest: “Roma,” which is the best pic of the bunch by far, and “A Star is Born,” which is a well-made, traditional Hollywood story by favorite son Bradley Cooper.

What an odd situation to be in. Expecting Oscar to save the day.

Here are the PGA/Oscar comparisons. 

Year PGA Oscar Winner
2018 Green Book ??
2017 The Shape of Water The Shape of Water
2016 La La Land Moonlight
2015 The Big Short Spotlight
2014 Birdman Birdman
2013 Gravity/ 12 Years a Slave 12 Years a Slave
2012 Argo Argo
2011 The Artist The Artist
2010 The King’s Speech The King's Speech
2009 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
2008 Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire
2007 No Country for Old Men No Country for Old Men
2006 Little Miss Sunshine The Departed
2005 Brokeback Mountain Crash
2004 The Aviator Million Dollar Baby
2003 Lord of the Rings Lord of the Rings
2002 Chicago Chicago
2001 Moulin Rouge! A Beautiful Mind
2000 Gladiator Gladiator
1999 American Beauty American Beauty
1998 Saving Private Ryan Shakespeare in Love
1997 Titanic Titanic
1996 The English Patient The English Patient
1995 Apollo 13 Braveheart
1994 Forrest Gump Forrest Gump
1993 Schindler's List Schindler's List
1992 The Crying Game Unforgiven
1991 The Silence of the Lambs The Silence of the Lambs
1990 Dances with Wolves Dances with Wolves
1989 Driving Miss Daisy Driving Miss Daisy

For a time there, I would've gone PGA: Apollo 13, Private Ryan, Brokeback, Little Miss Sunshine. Better choices, all. And yes, the PGAs awarded “Driving Miss Daisy,” too. 

Posted at 06:33 AM on Sunday January 20, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  
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