Movies - Awards posts

OK, nerd alert: I keep a spreadsheet of movie awards, guild and otherwise, and how they match up against the Oscars, and update it each season. Mostly best picture stuff. Anyway, in the last Oscar crush, my eyes wandered over to the Golden Globe Awards for Drama and Comedy/Musical, and I kind of idly scanned the list. And then not so idly I began to realize that generally I preferred the GG winners for Comedy/Musical (usually thought of as a frivilous category) over the GG for Drama (serious and important).

Here they are since 1970. My preferences are in yellow. If there's no yellow, it's a wash (“Nomadland,” “Borat”), or I haven't seen one of the movies ('Beauty and the Beast,“ ”Green Card,“ ”Arthur,“ ”The Turning Point,“ ”Fiddler on the Roof“). 

I would've assumed a landslide for Drama, but it's 18-15 in favor of Comedy/Musical. Your mileage may differ.

Love that the raunchy Burt Reynolds prison/football comedy ”The Longest Yard“ got a Golden Globe. There should be more of that. And paired with ”Chinatown"? That's a fun year. If you had to do a double-feature, which year would you go with? I like '72, '74, '82, '14 and '17. 

Sam Mendes' “1917” won the BAFTA for best film. Congrats. Wasn't my favorite, or even in my top 10 probably (getting on that, yes), but so it goes. But does this mean anything for Oscar? 

Well, yes and no. 

In the last five years, best pictures across the pond haven't agreed once:

In the six years before that, they didn‘t disagree once:

And before that it was a mixed bag—though mostly disagreeable. This century, the two bodies have agreed eight out of 19 times, but I get the feeling this season will make it nine out of 20. I'm getting a “1917” vibe for Oscar. Maybe becaue I don't want it to win? 

In acting, it was the usual suspects: Joaquin, Renee, Laura and Brad. I expect them all to pick up hardware next week, too.

Joaquin spoke out against systemic racism. Rebel Wilson brought the house down with a very funny intro to, I assume, best director. Now if she could only be this funny in any movie we pay to see her in. 

Ta.

Last night Sam Mendes won the Directors Guild Award for his WWI film “1917,” adding to the hardware he, and his film, have already collected. The week before it won the Producers Guild Award. Two weeks before that, the Golden Globe for Best Drama. It's been nominated for nine BAFTA awards and 10 Oscars. It's rolling.

So what are the chances it rolls its way into the Oscar for best picture? 

At this point, pretty good. This century, the PGAs and DGAs have agreed 12 times (1917 is the lucky 13th), and of those 12 the Academy went with the DGA/PGA pick 10 times. In 2005, to its perpetual embarassment, the Academy chose “Crash” over “Brokeback”; and for the 2016 season, in an envelope mixup for the ages, it went “Moonlight” over “La La Land.” Otherwise, lockstep.

It feels like we‘re done. Shame. It’s never much fun when we feel like we're done.

Last night the Producers Guild of America chose its best for 2019, and for feature film they went Sam Mendes' WWI drama “1917.” Mark Harris tweeted this morning that “1917” must have a real chance at Oscar now, considering how much it's being attacked. Truer words.

But how much of a harbinger is it? Well, since the Academy went to the preferential ballot in 2009, this has been the PGA's track record:

For the first few years of this, there was a lockstep between PGA, DGA and Oscar. They all chose the same. Since 2013, divergence. In that divergence, though, PGA has been the more accurate indicator of best picture than DGA, SAG-cast, or even the Golden Globes, which, with both drama and comedy/musical, has two chances to get it right.  

Overall, in the 10 years since preferential ballots began, the harbinger count favors PGA: 

• PGA: 7.5
• DGA: 6
• GGs: 6
• SAG-Cast: 4

I still say it's down to three movies: “1917,” “Once Upon a Time...” and “Irishman.” Wouldn't be surprised if we got another split: Tarantino for director, “1917” for picture.

UPDATE: Tonight, the Screen Actors Guild gave its cast award to “Parasite.” I think it's the first time a guild award has gone to a foreign film. Congrats all around. That said, as per above, it doesn't mean much for the best picture Oscar race. Last year, SAG cast went to “Black Panther.” The year before, it was “Three Billobards,” and the year before that, “Hidden Figures.” None came close to best picture. 

The three big guild nominations were announced this week—PGA, DGA and WGA—and it's narrowed down the best picture race a bit:

OK, so the DGA can do the narrowing on its own.

As I wrote last year, only twice in its 71-year history has the DGA not nominated the director of the movie that eventually won the Oscar for best picture. (For sticklers, these were: Olivier, “Hamlet,” 1948; Beresford, “Driving Miss Daisy,” 1989; both received no DGA nom.) If this holds, we‘re down to five movies.

Actually, make that four. No way the Academy will go “JoJo Rabbit.”

And has a foreign-language film ever won best picture? No. Not even “Roma.” So we seem to be down to three:

• 1917
• The Irishman
• Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

“Irishman” also has that Netflix/streaming problem, which might take away votes. Maybe it’s two? Maybe it's QT's year?

Oscar noms take place Monday, Jan. 13. Not sure why the change from the traditional Tuesday. Is someone at the Academy into “disruption”? Thrilling. 

I like that the LA Film Critics includes runner-ups. It's like a built-in discussion. Hell, I'd be cool with top 3. The Oscars is a zero-sum game in comparison.

Anyway, this is that body's choices for 2019, along with a few thoughts from me:

• Best Picture: Parasite
• Runner-up: The Irishman

I‘ve seen both; I’m hoping there's better. I already think there's better, but I get the appeal of these. 

• Director: Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
• Runner-up: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)

Same same. Neither is a bad pick.

• Actor: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
• Runner-up: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

Haven't seen “Pain and Glory” but Adam Driver is among my front-runners, along with Joaquin Phoenix and Leo DiCaprio—neither of whom seem to be getting much critic love at this point in the season.

• Actress: Mary Kay Place (Diane)
• Runner-up: Lupita Nyong'o (Us)

Apparently MKP is great in “Diane,” a way under-the-radar movie I‘ll have to check out. Lupita is my frontrunner. 

• Supporting Actor: Song Kang Ho (Parasite)
• Runner-up: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

The Toronto critics went with Brad Pitt in “Once Upon a Time...” That’s my choice. 

• Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
• Runner-up: Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell)

Need to see “Hustlers.” So far, Zhao, the grandmother in “The Farewell, is my choice. 

• Screenplay: Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
• Runner-up: Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won (Parasite)

Sure.

• Documentary: American Factory
• Runner-up: Apollo 11

I need to see ”Apollo 11" soon. Shame I didn't on the big screen. 

More here.

FLASH! The National Board of Review announces its best movie of the year! And its top 10! Which doesn't include the best movie of the year! So top 2-11!

It's always fun when NBR makes its annual announcements, because it's the critics org that goes first; and it's always not fun because their choices are often headscratching or dull. Or both. The NBR is like the New Hampshire primary if no one gave a shit who won the New Hampshire primary. They‘re your grandfather’s critics group.

And like your grandfather, they love themselves some Clint Eastwood. Quick question: Why is “Jersey Boys” significant in NBR's recent awards history? Because it's the first movie since 2003 that Clint Eastwood directed that didn't at least make NBR's top 10. Or 11.

That's nine movies in a row, including such forgettable fare as “Changeling,” “Invictus,” “Hereafter” and “J. Edgar.” Then he got two more, followed by two 2018 passes. (For a good review of “The Mule,” please consult John Mulaney.) Now he's back in their good graces with “Richard Jewell,” about the security guard who saved lives during a 1996 bombing ... and was then accused of having planted it. He was pilloried in the press. So Eastwood pillories the press—along with, it looks like from the trailer, the FBI. One nice thing about that story? He won't have to lie to make his small-government case the way he did with “Sully.” 

(Oh yeah, and what about that odd “Come back when you‘re black” line to Frank Valli by a 1959 A&R man in “Jersey Boys”? At a time when a white singer sounding like a black man is what every A&R man dreamed of? Is Eastwood implying that somehow black people had it easier? In 1959? I need to do a bigger piece on Eastwood some day.)

So here’s NBR's 2-11 for 2019:

• “1917”
• “Dolemite is My Name”
• “Ford v Ferrari”
• “Jojo Rabbit”
• “Knives Out”
• “Marriage Story”
• “Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood”
• “Richard Jewell”
• “Uncut Gems”
• “Waves”

I haven't seen most of these yet, but I can't believe “The Farewell” didn't make the cut—just NBR's top 10 indies, along with “Judy” (which looks horrendous). Meanwhile, “Judy”'s Rene Zellwegger garnered the actress award, while Adam Sandler (!) won the actor. No snarky comment there—he looks great in the trailer. (That said: Leo? Joaquin?)

They gave director to Quentin Tarantino, his first since he won for “Pulp Fiction” back in 1994. NBR's director history is interesting. Name the three NBR directing awards Martin Scorsese has won. Ready? “The Age of Innocence,” “The Departed” and “Hugo.” The ones you immediately think of when you think Scorsese. How about the one time Spielberg won? “Empire of the Sun.” Again. And for all their Eastwood love, he's won director only twice: “American Sniper” and ... “Invictus.” Yes. “Invictus.” They loved “Invictus.” Freeman won Best Actor for it, too.

This year, NBR's best movie was Scorsese's “The Irishman.” Which ... sure.

The “Roma” team, clutching another award, via satellite.

Yesterday, the Brits held their Oscars, the BAFTAs, and it was the usual suspects this awards season: Roma and Rami. “The Favourite” was also a favorite, being a British monarchy tale seasoned with some Greek astringency, but it didn't win Outstanding Film; it won the lesser Outstanding British Film, which still seems the saddest of categories to me. Does any other country's film awards have a special category for their own country? Do the Golden Horse Awards, for example, have “Best Taiwanese Film”? No. Just the Brits do it. A consequence of their “special relationship” with Hollywood, I suppose.

Anyway, here they are: 

• Outstanding Film – Roma
• Outstanding Director – Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
• Outstanding Leading Actress – Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
• Outstanding Leading Actor – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
• Outstanding Supporting Actress – Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
• Outstanding Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Green Book
• Outstanding Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
• Outstanding Original Screenplay – The Favourite
• Outstanding British Film – The Favourite
• Outstanding Film Not in the English Language – Roma
• Outstanding Documentary – Free Solo
• Outstanding Cinematography – Roma
• Outstanding Special Visual Effects – Black Panther
• Outstanding Costume Design – The Favourite
• Outstanding Production Design – The Favourite
• Outstanding Editing – Vice
• Outstanding Animated Film – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse

Thoughts: Editing for “Vice”? Good god. Also “BlackkKlansman” for adapated screenplay? They adapted poorly—going for the ‘fros of ’72 rather than the right-wing resurgence of ‘79. That’s where the story takes place and where the true story is. 

Nice win for “Free Solo”; my friend Erika is happy. 

Malek seems a shoo-in now. Glad Coleman won here and hope Glenn Close wins in Hollywood—just to end it already. Close should‘ve won supporting for “Garp” back in ’82 (over Jessica Lange, whom I loved in “Tootsie”), and then we wouldn't be in this situation. You could also say for “Albert Nobbs” in 2011 over Meryl's “Iron Lady” but that was the year Viola Davis got robbed. The first year she got robbed.

Does the “Roma” win here mean anything for the Academy? Who knows? BAFTA and Oscar's best films didn't agree at all from 2004 to 2007; then they agreed every year from 2008 to 2013; then they haven't agreed since. Nor should they. But I wouldn't be surprised if this is the year they do. There's no real option, other than “The Favourite,” which couldn't even win with the Brits. Every other nominee is problematic. A superhero movie? A shitty music biopic? An otherwise good true-life period road film in which the white guy teaches the black guy everything—including about black culture—and was written by the white guy's son?

We'll find out Feb. 24. 

Since the SAG Cast Award was created in 1996, there have been five years when all three guilds disagreed on feature film. This year is the fifth.

So which guild tends to win out at the Oscars? For best picture? It's a mixed bag.

Follow-up: Does that mean this year's best picture winner is going to be one of these three films? Most likely. There's only been one year since ‘96 when a film that didn’t win any of the guilds won best picture: In 2016, “Hidden Figures” won SAG Cast, and “La La Land” won PGA and DGA, but “Moonlight” famously won best picture. That was the other shocking thing that night at the Oscars: It wasn't just the envelope screw up; it was a non-guild winner winning best picture, which was unprecedented. 

All roads lead to “Roma.” 

Last night, Alfonso Cuaron's “Roma” won the Director's Guild Award for feature film, which pretty much guarantees Cuaron will win the best director Oscar on Feb. 24.

This century, the only years a director won the DGA and didn't win the Oscar were in 2000, when Ang Lee won the DGA for “Crouching Tiger' but the Academy gave it to Steven Soderbergh for the already forgotten ”Traffic“; and in 2012, when Ben Affleck won the DGA for ”Argo“ but wasn't nominated for an Oscar, so, maybe as a makeup call, it went to Ang Lee for the already forgotten ”Life of Pi.“

The one thing I could see happenng? Or maybe wanting to happen? Spike Lee winning it, ”Departed“-style, for ”BlacKkKlansman,“ since he has zero best director Oscars (or DGAs, for that matter), and Cuaron has the one (for ”Gravity“). But if it was really about the film, Cuaron should win.

What's not guaranteed? ”Roma" winning best picture. It used to go: DGA winner would win best director, whose movie would win best picture. But that cord has been cut in recent years. 

On the other hand, what else is there? Nothing I'd vote for. 

Last night, in Hollywood, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) doled out its annual awards. For Oscar watchers, it's noteworthy because SAG winners tend to go on to win their respetive Oscars. In the last five years, among the big four awards (Actress, Actor, supportings), the Academy has agreed with SAG 18 of 20 times—or 90 percent. In ‘16, SAG went Denzel over Casey Affleck, and in ’15 it went Idris Elba over Mark Rylance. That's it. The only disagreements. 

Add another. Last night, SAG chose the following:

• Lead actor: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
• Lead actress: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
• Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
• Supporting actress: Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”

Since Blunt's performance wasn't nominated by the Academy, that one's already out. So, at best, 3 of 4. But I don't think it‘ll even be that. I can see Malek and Close, but Ali winning again, so soon after “Moonlight”? I’m assuming it's Adam Driver in “BlacKkKlansman,” Sam Elliott given a kind of lifetime nod for “A Star is Born,” or Richard E. Grant for “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” But I‘ve been wrong before. 

“Black Panther” also won the SAG cast award, which many posit as a precursor to best picture. Nope. Since they began SAG cast in ’96, it's correlated with best pic only 11 of 23 times.

Here's the recent history. Yellow highlight indicates discrepancy with Oscar. 

Feb. 24.

Driving Misinformation?

“Green Book,” the anodyne-yet-controversial update of “Driving Miss Daisy” with the racial positions reversed, won the Producers Guild Award, or PGA, last night in Hollywood. 

What does this mean? Historically, it means the movie has a 66% chance of winning best picture at the Academy Awards. That's the numbers from this century. (See below.)

The 10 PGA nominees weren't exactly stellar anyway, since 2018 was a fairly lousy year for American movies. If I had to rank them I'd go:

1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. A Star is Born
4. A Quiet Place
5. Green Book
6. Black Panther
7. Vice
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
9. BlacKkKlansman
10. Crazy Rich Asians

There's a big dropoff after 1) and another big dropoff after 3). So “Green Book” winning is a kind of middle-of-the-road pick by the PGA. For an anodyne road picture. 

Well, “anodyne.” What struck me when first seeing the film, which is based on a true story, is how quickly its racist chauffeur overcomes his racism. It shows up in the first act and never again. He's also not homophobic. In 1962. He also has to show the black guy black culture. All of that. He's got the biggest heart of any man out there, and guess what? The screenplay was co-written by his son! Who, oh right, had a habit of retweeting racist accusations Donald Trump made. So apparently racism is harder to overcome than Vallelanga or Hollywood would have us believe. (See also: yesterday.) 

The Academy has become a bit more diverse in recent years, a consequence of the #OscarsSoWhite viral campaign, so maybe they‘ll be able to go another route. The two surest: “Roma,” which is the best pic of the bunch by far, and “A Star is Born,” which is a well-made, traditional Hollywood story by favorite son Bradley Cooper.

What an odd situation to be in. Expecting Oscar to save the day.

Here are the PGA/Oscar comparisons. 

For a time there, I would've gone PGA: Apollo 13, Private Ryan, Brokeback, Little Miss Sunshine. Better choices, all. And yes, the PGAs awarded “Driving Miss Daisy,” too. 

The Directors Guild Awards (DGAs) for 2018 feature film were announced yesterday:

• Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
• Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
• Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”
• Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
• Adam McKay, “VICE”

For newbie Oscar watchers, this is how it works. Generally, the director that wins the DGA also wins the Oscar's best director, and usually that picture wins best picture. There's been some fumbling of handoffs on this recently but overall it holds. Since 1948, when the DGA began handing out this award, there's been a 75% chance (55/71) that the DGA's directorial achievement is the Oscar's best picture. 

Related question: How likely is it that one of the above films isn't our ultimate Oscar winner for best picture?

Not bloody likely, as Jerry once said. 

Yes, in that first year, 1948, the DGAs didn't nominate Laurence Olivier for best director for “Hamlet,” which went on to win best picture. And in 1989, the DGAs didn't nominate Bruce Beresford for best director for “Driving Miss Daisy,” which went on to win best picture. 

And that's it. Two of 71. 97% chance. So unless something shock occurs, one of the above is our 2018 Oscar winner for best picture.

Among those, I'd vote “Roma” early and often. “A Star is Born” and “Green Book” have good shots, I believe. “Vice” and “BlacKkKlansman”: probably not.

UPDATE 90 MINUTES LATER: OK, “Green Book” is out. 

The Natonal Society of Film Critics issued their year-end awards last night, and here are the winners, along with runners up. I like that they gave you the point totals for each, too. Would be interesting if the Academy did the same. 

BEST ACTRESS:

• Olivia Colman (The Favourite) – 36 points
• Regina Hall (Support the Girls) – 33
• Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) – 27

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

• Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) – 47
• Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) – 37
• Emma Stone (The Favourite) – 24

BEST ACTOR:

• Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) – 58
• Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) – 30
• Ben Foster (Leave No Trace) – 25 and John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers, Stan & Ollie) – 25

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

• Steven Yeun (Burning) – 40
• Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) – 35
• Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk, Widows, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse) – 32

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

• Roma (Alfonso Cuarón) – 70
• If Beale Street Could Talk (James Laxton) – 26
• Cold War (Lukasz Zal) – 24

BEST SCREENPLAY:

• The Death of Stalin (Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin) – 47
• Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty) – 27
• The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara) – 24

BEST PICTURE:

• The Rider – 44
• Roma – 41
• Burning – 27

BEST DIRECTOR:

• Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) – 60
• Lee Chang-dong (Burning) – 22 and Chloé Zhao (The Rider) – 22

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM:

• Roma – 44
• Cold War – 34
• Burning – 30 and Shoplifters – 30

BEST NON-FICTION FILM:

• Minding the Gap – 35
• Shirkers – 31
• Amazing Grace – 24

FILM HERITAGE AWARD:

• To the team of producers, editors, restorers, technicians, and cineastes who labored for decades to bring Orson Welles's The Other Side of the Wind to completion for a new generation of movie lovers.
• To the Museum of Modern Art for restoring Ernst Lubitsch's 1923 film Rosita, starring Mary Pickford.

SPECIAL CITATION for a film awaiting U.S. distribution: A Family Tour (Ying Liang, Taiwan/Hong Kong/Singapore/Malaysia).

Closest race was best actress and best film. One wonders if “Roma” might‘ve won its best pic if it also wasn’t up for best foreign-language film. 

Still need to see “The Rider.” P and I saw “Minding the Gap” yesterday. I went in thinking it was about daredevil skateboarders. Nope.

Here are the past winners from the Natonal Society of Film Critics, so you can see if you agree much. I tend to, give or take a Godard:

Poster collage via Nathaniel at Film Experience. 

The Producers Guild announced their top films of 2018 yesterday, and it's not exactly inspiring:

BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

My fave of the group is “Roma” (oddly, the only one whose review isn't up), followed by .... whoosh. Not sure. Maybe “The Favourite”? Then, in no order, “Star,” “Quiet,” “Vice,” Green.“ All have issues but better than ”BlacKkKlansman,“ which has bigger issues. ”Panther“ is an OK superhero flick, ”Rhapsody“ is a below-average music biopic and ”Asians“ is a below-average rom-com.

But it is diverse. 

Is that enough? I look at this list and think: weak year. Or maybe I‘ve just been cranky for 12 months. 

A year ago, the PGA noms went:

The Big Sick 
Call Me By Your Name 
Dunkirk 
Get Out 
I, Tonya 
Lady Bird 
Molly’s Game 
The Post 
The Shape of Water 
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

I would take 5-6 of these over every one of this year's noms save ”Roma."