Monday August 04, 2008
Why Titanic is unsinkable
I’ve got a piece on MSNBC today about The Dark Knight’s box office and why it probably won’t pass Titanic’s domestic record of $600 million and why it definitely won’t pass Titanic’s worldwide gross of $1.8 billion. The latter prediction is a no-brainer and the former prediction is the result of finding a similar film (blockbuster, summer, PG-13), with similar percentage drop-offs (daily, weekly) and plugging in The Dark Knight’s original weekly total. That film is Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (the second one) and here’s how its percentages calculate with The Dark Knight’s original numbers:
Week | Box Office | % change |
1 | $238 million | |
2 | $110 million | -53.7% |
3 | $62 million | -43.5% |
4 | $37 million | -39.8% |
5 | $20 million | -46.5% |
6 | $13 million | -34.2% |
7 | $9 million | -30.6% |
8 | $6.7 million | -26.5% |
9 | $6.7 million | -0.6% |
10 | $3 million | -53.7% |
11 | $2 million | -35.3% |
12 | $1 million | -34.3% |
13 | $737, 903 | -44.1% |
14 | $492,181 | -33.3% |
15 | $306,137 | -37.8% |
16 | $196,540 | -35.8% |
17 | $187,892 | -4.4% |
18 | $201,984 | +7.5% |
19 | $759,460 | +276% |
20 | $603,771 | -20.5% |
21 | $454,035 | -24.8% |
22 | $273,329 | -39.8% |
The total? $515 million.
How accurate is this formula? It predicts $110 million for Dark Knight’s second week; the film wound up making $112 million. So not bad so far.
The Dark Knight might do better than this, of course. For one, its percentage drop-offs, thus far, aren’t quite as high as Pirates'. Plus it’s a better film, and so should have longer legs, etc., and there’s Oscar buzz. But Titanic looks safe.
Of course that's what they said in 1912.
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