I didn't get up early to watch the Oscar nominations read live at 5:30 PST as I've done in the past. Instead I got up at six, as usual, showered, grabbed coffee, and read them online via IMDb.com. Much more civilized.

My first thought? No surprises. I thought: Nathaniel over at Film Experience had all of these 10 best picture nominees yesterday. Maybe we should just go through Nathaniel instead of AMPAS.

• 127 Hours
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone

Actor? Great group. No weak spots:

• Javier Bardem for Biutiful
• Jeff Bridges for True Grit
• Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network
• Colin Firth for The King's Speech
• James Franco for 127 Hours

Actress? Another strong group, but ...

• Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right
• Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole
• Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone
• Natalie Portman for Black Swan
• Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine

... no Hailee? She must be in supporting.

• Amy Adams for The Fighter
• Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech
• Melissa Leo for The Fighter
• Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit
• Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom

Yep. Too bad. She deserved to be in the lead category. But hardly a surprise. Business as usual, in fact.

Supporting actors? Did they ...

• Christian Bale for The Fighter
• John Hawkes for Winter's Bone
• Jeremy Renner for The Town
• Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech

Yes, they did! They included John Hawkes! Alright! No Pierce Brosnan but that would've been a stretch. In fact, is the “Ghost Writer” anywhere? Nope. Not in one category. More proof, as if we need it, that America is not Europe. America is more puritanical. Even Hollywood is puritanical.

Director? Consider it the Class of 1999/2000. The Coens are old hands here.

• Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
• Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit
• David Fincher for The Social Network
• Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
• David O. Russell for The Fighter

I'd replace Hooper or Russell with Nolan, but, again, this is hardly a surprise. (Read Nathaniel on the third-time snub of Nolan.)

In fact, where are the surprises?

Fourth from the end, in the “Best Documentary, Features” category.

Not only was “Waiting for Superman,” which won the PGA last week, not nominated, but neither was “The Tillman Story.” Both, I thought, would elbow out my favorite, “Restrepo,” which I think is one of the best movies of the year, documentary or feature, but “Restrepo” made the list.

• Exit Through the Gift Shop: Banksy
• GasLand: Josh Fox
• Inside Job: Charles Ferguson
• Restrepo: Tim Hetherington, Sebastian Junger
• Waste Land: Lucy Walker

I would've put “A Film Unfinished” on that list as well, if it were eligible (not sure if it is), but it's still a strong list. I haven't seen the two “Lands,” “Gas” or “Waste” (isn't that the same?), but the others are all worthy. “Exit” is unique, but parts of it are a bit of a larf, maybe the whole thing, so I wouldn't vote for it. “Inside Job” is a traditional, talking-head doc, and important, but, as I've written, hardly told me anything I didn't know.

But “Restrepo”? With apologies to Banksy: That's art.

See you February 27th. Maybe we'll even be pleasantly surprised that evening.

ADDENDA: A good post on Oscar snubs from The Film Experience.

Meanwhile, the smartest comment about “Waiting for Superman” being snubbed is in the comments field at Hollywood Elsewhere from a reader named Martin Blank. He writes: “Waiting for Superman got snubbed because it's anti-union. And Hollywood is a union town.” As soon as you read that, you go “Of course.”