Today, the Directors Guild of America announced its nominees for outstanding direction in a feature film in 2012. Its nominees:

• Ben Affleck for “Argo”
• Kathryn Bigelow for “Zero Dark Thirty”
• Tom Hooper for “Les Miserables”
• Ang Lee for “Life of Pi”
• Steven Spielberg for “Lincoln”

As mentioned before, whoever wins the DGA almost always wins best director; and whoever wins best director, their movie almost always wins best picture.

Since 1990, the line from the DGA's best director to the Oscar's best picture has been broken only four times: in 1995, 2000, 2002 and 2005.

As for a best picture coming from a director who wasn't even nominated for a DGA? That's only happened once since 1969.

In other words, “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Django Unchained” and “The Master”? SOL, dudes.

I think we're actually down to two films: “Lincoln” and “Argo.” I think the torture issue is sinking “Zero Dark Thirty.” (When you lie to us, Kathryn, we hurt you.) I think “Les Miz” isn't respected enough. I think “Life of Pi” is mostly forgotten.

The Academy roars Thursday morning. I'll be blogging early with reaction.