Monday January 28, 2019
SAG Passes Oscar a Blunt
Last night, in Hollywood, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) doled out its annual awards. For Oscar watchers, it's noteworthy because SAG winners tend to go on to win their respetive Oscars. In the last five years, among the big four awards (Actress, Actor, supportings), the Academy has agreed with SAG 18 of 20 times—or 90 percent. In ‘16, SAG went Denzel over Casey Affleck, and in ’15 it went Idris Elba over Mark Rylance. That's it. The only disagreements.
Add another. Last night, SAG chose the following:
- Lead actor: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
- Lead actress: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
- Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
- Supporting actress: Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”
Since Blunt's performance wasn't nominated by the Academy, that one's already out. So, at best, 3 of 4. But I don't think it‘ll even be that. I can see Malek and Close, but Ali winning again, so soon after “Moonlight”? I’m assuming it's Adam Driver in “BlacKkKlansman,” Sam Elliott given a kind of lifetime nod for “A Star is Born,” or Richard E. Grant for “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” But I‘ve been wrong before.
“Black Panther” also won the SAG cast award, which many posit as a precursor to best picture. Nope. Since they began SAG cast in ’96, it's correlated with best pic only 11 of 23 times.
Here's the recent history. Yellow highlight indicates discrepancy with Oscar.
|Year||Lead Actor||Lead Actress||Supporting Actor||Supporting Actress|
|2018||Rami Malek||Glenn Close||Mahershala Ali||Emily Blunt|
|2017||Gary Oldman||Frances McDormand||Sam Rockwell||Allison Janey|
|2016||Denzel Washington||Emma Stone||Mahershala Ali||Viola Davis|
|2015||Leonardo DiCaprio||Brie Larson||Idris Elba||Alicia Vikander|
|2014||Eddie Redmayne||Julianne Moore||J.K. Simmons||Patricia Arquette|
|2013||Matthew McConaughey||Cate Blanchett||Jared Leto||Lupita Nyong'o|
|2012||Daniel Day-Lewis||Jennifer Lawrence||Tommy Lee Jones||Anne Hathaway|
|2011||Jean Dujardin||Viola Davis||Christopher Plummer||Octavia Spencer|
|2010||Colin Firth||Natalie Portman||Christian Bale||Melissa Leo|