“So far, election commentary has been even worse than I imagined it would be. ... people aren't being properly informed about the basic arithmetic of the situation. ...

”First, at a certain point you have to stop reporting about the race for a party's nomination as if it's mainly about narrative and 'momentum.' That may be true at an early stage, when candidates are competing for credibility and dollars. Eventually, however, it all becomes a simple, concrete matter of delegate counts. ...

“Second, polls can be really helpful at assessing the state of a race, but only if you fight the temptation to cherry-pick, to only cite polls telling the story you want to hear. Recent hyperventilating over the California primary is a classic example. Most polls show Mrs. Clinton with a solid lead, but one recent poll shows a very close race. So, has her lead 'evaporated,' as some reports suggest? Probably not: Another poll, taken at the very same time, showed an 18-point lead.

”What the polling experts keep telling us to do is rely on averages of polls rather than highlighting any one poll in particular. This does double duty: it prevents cherry-picking, and it also helps smooth out the random fluctuations that are an inherent part of polling, but can all too easily be mistaken for real movement. And the polling average for California has, in fact, been pretty stable, with a solid Clinton lead.“

-- Paul Krugman, ”Feel the Math," The New York Times