ErikLundegaard.com - Oscar Watch: Has “The Artist” Already Won Best Picture?

Oscar Watch: Has “The Artist” Already Won Best Picture?

Last night, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) awarded its “Outstanding Achievement in Feature Film” Award to Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist.”

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the DGA is the best single predictor of the Academy Award for best picture. Here are the DGA's award winners since 1990. The DGA feature-film achievements that didn't go on to win best DGA picture are highlighted in bold:

2011: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
2010: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
2009: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
2008: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2007: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
2006: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
2005: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
2004: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
2003: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2002: Rob Marshall, Chicago
2001: Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
2000: Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
1999: Sam Mendes, American Beauty
1998: Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan
1997: James Cameron, Titanic
1996: Anthony Minghella, The English Patient
1995: Ron Howard, Apollo 13
1994: Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump
1993: Steven Spielberg, Schindler's List
1992: Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven
1991: Jonathan Demme, The Silence of the Lambs
1990: Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves

Seventeen-for-21. If we predicted that well, Vegas wouldn't let us in.

Each discrepancy has an explanation. Blame homophobia for 2005, xenophobia for 2000, Harvey Weinstein's hefty push for “Shakespeare in Love” for 1998, and who knows what in 1995. Opiephobia? Howard didn't even get nom'ed by the Academy for “Apollo 13,” which is much better film than the eventual winner, Mel Gibson's “Braveheart.”

I suppose the question is: How Francophobic is the Academy? Un peu? And for those who are, well, Hazanavicius has Harvey Weinstein and his heft on his side. To me that means done, over and out. La course est terminee. Felicitations, M. Hazanavicius.

First Bejo, now the DGA.

Posted at 10:20 AM on Sun. Jan 29, 2012 in category Movies - The Oscars
Tags: The DGAs, Oscars, The Artist

COMMENTS

Reed wrote:

Ah, but we're in a new age for Best Picture as this year and the previous two use the ranking voting system. For example, if that were in place in 2005, I'm convinced Crash would not have won because enough reasonable people would have voted it fifth. So the question is, how do the new voting rules affect this prediction?

Comment posted on Sun. Jan 29, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Erik wrote:

If the last two years are any indication ... not much. Best Director is still chosen by a plurality, while best picture now by instant runoff voting, and in the last two years the two different methods have wound up with the same choice: Bigelow and “Hurt Locker” in 2009 and Hooper and “King's Speech” in 2010.

Small pool, though, so no one bet your life savings just yet.