erik lundegaard

Oscar Watch: Has “The Artist” Already Won Best Picture?

Last night, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) awarded its “Outstanding Achievement in Feature Film” Award to Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist.”

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the DGA is the best single predictor of the Academy Award for best picture. Here are the DGA's award winners since 1990. The DGA feature-film achievements that didn't go on to win best DGApicture are highlighted in bold:

  • 2011: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist        
  • 2010: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
  • 2009: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
  • 2008: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
  • 2007: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
  • 2006: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
  • 2005: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
  • 2004: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
  • 2003: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 2002: Rob Marshall, Chicago
  • 2001: Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
  • 2000: Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
  • 1999: Sam Mendes, American Beauty
  • 1998: Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan
  • 1997: James Cameron, Titanic
  • 1996: Anthony Minghella, The English Patient
  • 1995: Ron Howard, Apollo 13
  • 1994: Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump
  • 1993: Steven Spielberg, Schindler's List
  • 1992: Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven
  • 1991: Jonathan Demme, The Silence of the Lambs
  • 1990: Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves

Seventeen-for-21. If we predicted that well, Vegas wouldn't let us in.

Each discrepancy has an explanation. Blame homophobia for 2005, xenophobia for 2000, Harvey Weinstein's hefty push for “Shakespeare in Love” for 1998, and who knows what in 1995. Opiephobia? Howard didn't even get nom'ed by the Academy for “Apollo 13,” which is much better film than the eventual winner, Mel Gibson's “Braveheart.”

I suppose the question is: How Francophobic is the Academy? Un peu? And for those who are, well, Hazanavicius has Harvey Weinstein and his heft on his side. To me that means done, over and out. La course est terminee. Felicitations, M. Hazanavicius.

Bejo in "The Artist"

First Bejo, now the DGA.


Posted at 10:20 AM on Sun. Jan 29, 2012 in category Movies - The Oscars  
Tags: , ,

COMMENTS

Reed wrote:

Ah, but we're in a new age for Best Picture as this year and the previous two use the ranking voting system. For example, if that were in place in 2005, I'm convinced Crash would not have won because enough reasonable people would have voted it fifth. So the question is, how do the new voting rules affect this prediction?

Comment posted on Sun. Jan 29, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Erik wrote:

If the last two years are any indication ... not much. Best Director is still chosen by a plurality, while best picture now by instant runoff voting, and in the last two years the two different methods have wound up with the same choice: Bigelow and “Hurt Locker” in 2009 and Hooper and “King's Speech” in 2010.

Small pool, though, so no one bet your life savings just yet.

Comment posted on Sun. Jan 29, 2012 at 11:57 AM

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