The Carpetbagger (aka David Carr) is back in the NY Times and his first column on this year's Oscar race contains his usual mix of fun, breezy writing, industry gossip, celebrity details (Kate Winslet wears size 11 shoes, which makes Patricia, same, happy) and throwaway personal info (“the Bagger has been on the circuit on your behalf, enduring abundant buffets and spurning proffered cocktails...”), but mostly he's good at taking the Oscar race both seriously and not-so-seriously. He's also got his early picks for Best Picture noms in more or less this order of likelihood:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Milk
Doubt
The Reader
Gran Torino

Buzz must be strong. He agrees on the first four with EW — same order and everything — but has more doubt about “Doubt,” which slips to sixth, overtaken by “Milk.” He also adds two more quiet somber films, “The Reader” and “Gran Torino,” instead of the noisier films “Dark Knight” and “Australia.” We'll see. That is, we'll see these films when they arrive. Six of the eight are December releases. But so far it hasn't been a great best picture year. So far this year, so far this decade.