erik lundegaard

My 2014 Oscar Nominations

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences announces its nominees for the 2014 Oscars tomorrow morning. Here are my choices. These are preferences, not guesses. Guesses are boring, but I give odds after each category. Plus a better resource at the end.

BEST PICTURE

  • “Birdman”
  • “Boyhood”
  • “The Drop”
  • “Fury”
  • “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

The first two are in. “Budapest” maybe. “Drop” and “Fury” have no shot even though up to 10 films can be nominated. 

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Birdman”
  • Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
  • Bennet Miller, “Foxcatcher”
  • Pawel Pawlikowski, “Ida”

The first three were nom'ed for DGAs yesterday, a good harbinger. I'd rather the other DGA noms, Clint Eastwood (“American Sniper”) and Morten Tyldum (“Imitation Game”), didn't make it. Options include: Ruben Östlund (“Force Majeure”) Michael R. Roskam (“The Drop”), David Ayer (“Fury”), Ira Sachs (“Love Is Strange”), Dan Gilroy (“Nightcrawler”), Damien Chazelle (“Whiplash”), Jean-Marc Vallee (“Wild”), Ava DuVernay (“Selma”), and Paul Thomas Anderson (“Inherent Vice”). 

BEST ACTOR

  • Ralph Fiennes, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  • Tom Hardy, “The Drop”
  • John Lithgow, “Love Is Strange”
  • David Oyelowo, “Selma”
  • Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

Tough category. Toughest? I didn't even include Michael Keaton for “Birdman,” the likely winner. Unless it's Redmayne. Of mine, only Redmayne is a sure thing. 

BEST ACTRESS

  • Bérénice Bejo, “Le Passé”
  • Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
  • Lisa Loven Kongsli, “Force Majeure”
  • Jenny Slate, “Obvious Child”
  • Reese Witherspoon, “Wild” 

I don't know if I'm hearing nothing on “Le Passé” because it's considered a 2013 movie or because nobody liked it as much as I did. I think the former. Of the above, Witherspoon is the no-brainer, while Cotillard would get my vote. Caveat: I haven't seen either of the Julianne Moore movies, but she's the likely winner for a movie no one has seen. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Shia LeBeouf, “Fury”
  • Ed Norton, “Birdman”
  • Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
  • J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”
  • Matthias Schoenaerts, “The Drop”

Norton and Simmons are the likely nominees, Simmons the likely winner. It pains me to leave off Ethan Hawke's work for “Boyhood.” LeBeouf and Schoenaerts have gotten *zero* talk. Is it the consecutive vowels in their names? I think the Academy is vowelist. Thus spaketh Lundegaard.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
  • Laura Dern, “Wild”
  • Agata Kulesza, “Ida”
  • Rene Russo, “Nightcrawler”
  • Marisa Tomei, “Love Is Strange” 

Arquette, yes, Dern and Russo maybe. Emma Stone will get nom'ed for “Birdman.” Probably Jessica Chastain for “A Most Violent Year.” Did you see her at the Golden Globes? She gets better-looking every year. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
  • David Ayer, “Fury”
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo, “Birdman”
  • Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
  • Phil Lord & Christopher Miller, “The LEGO Movie”

 Would've had “Selma” in here but for the LBJ thing. “Birdman,” “Boyhood,” in. Everything else is up for grabs. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Damien Chazelle, “Whiplash” 
  • James Gunn and Nicole Perlman, “Guardians of the Galaxy”
  • Nick Hornby, “Wild”
  • Dennis Lehane, “The Drop”
  • Gillian Robespierre, “Obvious Child”

“Whiplash” has a shot. Why, by the way, is Hornby getting no love? Talk about a tough adaptation. The book is mostly interior, something books do better than movies, and he made it work. Plus he's Nick Hornby. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY

  • “CitizenFour”
  • “Jordorowsky’s Dune”
  • “Life Itself”
  • “The Unknown Known”
  • “Whitey: United States of America v. James G. Bulger”

It appears to be a battle between “CitizenFour” and “LifeItself,” with the former probably winning.

Better predictions can be found via Nathaniel Rogers at Film Experience

A demain.

Tom Hardy in "The Drop"

Tom Hardy in “The Drop”: No love, despite the puppy. 

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Posted at 07:01 AM on Wed. Jan 14, 2015 in category Movies - The Oscars  
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