Hollywood B.O.: Crunching Numbers for HUGO

Sunday November 27, 2011

Hollywood B.O.: Crunching Numbers for HUGO

At first glance, it looks like Martin Scorsese's “Hugo” had a so-so opening weekend. That's what Jeff Wells over at Hollywood Elsewhere thought:

Paramount's decision to open Hugo on 1277 screens last Wednesday indicated (to me at least) that they were hedging their bets and hoping that critical raves and a word-of-mouth groundswell might materialize. As of last night Hugo had pulled in $8,545,000 after three days (having opened on 11.23) in 1277 theatres. That works out to a $6691 per-screen average...not bad, could be better. But it was fifth-placed after Breaking Dawn, The Muppets, Happy Feet 2 and Arthur Xmas (none of which I give a damn about).

The estimated numbers for the weekend are now in and it doesn't look much better:

No.	Movie	Studio	Weekend Gross	Thtrs	Average	Wks
1	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn	Sum.	$42,000,000	4,066	$10,330	2
2	The Muppets	BV	$29,500,000	3,440	$8,576	1
3	Happy Feet Two	WB	$13,400,000	3,606	$3,716	2
4	Arthur Christmas	Sony	$12,700,000	3,376	$3,762	1
5	Hugo	Par.	$11,350,000	1,277	$8,888	1

True, every other film in the top five played in more than 3,000 theaters, versus “Hugo”'s measley 1,277; but “Hugo”'s per-theater-average is still second best to “Twilight.”

But Box Office Mojo now offers more options to break down the numbers: not just theaters, but screens; and not just screens but showings. In this regard “Hugo” goes from a three-to-one disadvantage with “The Muppets” and a four-to-one disadvantage with “Twilight” to a six-to-one and 10-to-one disadvantage:

No.	Movie	Studio	Weekend Gross	Screens	Showings	Avg/Show	Wk
1	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn	Sum.	$42,000,000	7,200	104,500	$402	2
2	Happy Feet Two	WB	$13,400,000	6,500	71,000	$189	2
3	The Muppets	BV	$29,500,000	4,600	62,900	$469	1
4	Arthur Christmas	Sony	$12,700,000	5,600	60,400	$210	1
5	Jack and Jill	Sony	$10,300,000	3,100	43,100	$239	3
6	Puss in Boots	P/DW	$7,450,000	4,100	40,100	$186	5
7	Immortals	Rela.	$8,800,000	3,600	36,800	$239	3
8	J. Edgar	WB	$4,950,000	2,000	22,700	$218	3
9	Hugo	Par.	$11,350,000	1,300	11,400	$996	1

And if you sort these nine movies by average-per-show, you get a prettier picture:

No.	Movie	Studio	Weekend Gross	Screens	Showings	Avg/Show	Wk
1	Hugo	Par.	$11,350,000	1,300	11,400	$996	1
2	The Muppets	BV	$29,500,000	4,600	62,900	$469	1
3	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn	Sum.	$42,000,000	7,200	104,500	$402	2
4	Jack and Jill	Sony	$10,300,000	3,100	43,100	$239	3
5	Immortals	Rela.	$8,800,000	3,600	36,800	$239	3
6	J. Edgar	WB	$4,950,000	2,000	22,700	$218	3
7	Arthur Christmas	Sony	$12,700,000	5,600	60,400	$210	1
8	Happy Feet Two	WB	$13,400,000	6,500	71,000	$189	2
9	Puss in Boots	P/DW	$7,450,000	4,100	40,100	$186	5

Folks are obviously seeing it�at a two-to-one advantage over “The Muppets” and “Twilight.” The other movies don't even come into play. “Arthur Christmas,” another opener, is abyssmal in comparison.

Some of “Hugo”'s advantage is obviously 3-D money rather than kids in the seats. But one wonders, as always, how well it might have done if Paramount had just had the confidence to play it in more theaters, and on more screens, for more showings.

Still, I'm hoping for positive word-of-mouth. I love the movie, most people I know love the movie�our friend Laura kept thinking the word “enchanting” as she watched�and it's a movie that SHOULD BE SEEN IN THE THEATER. In 3-D. So go already. Please.

Meanwhile, last week, I said “Twilight” would drop like a rock. Did it? A bit: 69.6%, or about the same as Ang Lee's “Hulk,” “Jonah Hex” and “Eragon,” but not as bad as “New Moon” (70%). For movies opening in more than 3,000 theaters, it's the 12th-worst drop ever.