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Thursday January 30, 2025
Doubles, Triples, Homers: Ohtani or Duran?
If he's going to do it, he needs to do less of this.
Since we're a few weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting, let's look back at the season that was, and ask the usual questions. My usual questions.
Did anyone hit. 350?
Not even. Bobby Witt Jr. led the Majors with a .332 mark, while Luis Arraez's .314 topped the NL. Meaning the only .350 or better hitters in a full season since 2010 are ... (sorry, IS)...
- 2023, Luis Arraez, MIA, .354
This dearth, again, is a historical anomaly. MLB has tried to pump up BAs by restricting the shift, etc., but too many franchises still buy into the three-outcome philosophy, BB, K, or HR, which makes for low averages and (to me) a dull ballgame. I still think there's room for some team, particularly a small-market team, to re-do what the 2014-15 KC Royals did, which I always felt was Moneyball 2.0. “Moneyball,” remember, was really about how to compete in an unfair game. And how do you do that? You figure out what is undervalued and buy it and what is overvalued and sell it. What's undervalued now, as it was 10 years ago, is defense and putting the ball in play. So buy that. Even if you don't get a winner, you'll at least get a more exciting baseball team.
Is anyone closer to becoming the first player since Johnny Mize to lead the league in doubles, triples and homers at some point in their career?
Yes! Not only that, but Jarren Duran actually led the league in doubles and triples in the same season. The last guy to do that, as longtime readers know, is my man Cesar Tovar with the Minnesota Twins way back in 1970.
So who is this Jarren Duran when he's at home? A 28-year-old centerfielder for the Boston Red Sox playing in his first full season. He took the great leap forward—going from 2.1 bWAR to 8.7. Holy crap! That was fifth-best in the Majors, after Judge, Witt, Ohtani, and Gunnar Henderson. So does Duran now have the best chance to become the first player since Johnny Mize to lead the league in doubles, triples and homers at some point in their career? Reply hazy, try again. If I had to bet, I'd bet Shohei. Here are the active players who have two of the three XBH titles and just need the third.
The guys who need DOUBLES:
- Shohei Ohtani: He's lead the league in homers twice and triples once, and his career high in doubles is 38 in 2024—6th in the NL. One could see some of his homers becoming doubles as he ages. The concern? Mantle and Mays also needed just doubles and never got there. As they aged, their homers became outs. But if recent history has taught us anything, it's never underestimage Shohei.
The guys who need TRIPLES:
- Bryce Harper: He led the league in homers in 2015 and doubles in 2021, and his career high in triples is 9. The trouble? That was back in 2012. He's middle-aged now and has hit a total of three triples over the last four seasons. Not going happen.
- Nolan Arendao: He hit 7 triples in 2017 and 0 last season in 152 games. He turns 34 in April. Nope.
The guys who need HOMERS:
- Whit Merrifield: His career high of 19 homers was way back in 2017. Last season, for two teams, he hit 4.
- Jarren Duran: 21 homers last season at Fenway, along with his league-leading 48 doubles. If he can convert some of those to long balls, and if Aaron Judge gets injured, well, you never know.
For the newbies, here's the background on the doubles-triples-homers stat.
Which team has the longest postseason drought?
Last season it was a tie between the Tigers and Angels. Then in October Tigers went and knocked off the Astros (thank you!) but lost to the Guardians. So now it's just the Angels, who last went in 2014. Poor Angels. Poor Easy Breezy.
Which team has the longest pennant drought?
Drawing a blank ... Oh right, it's still my Seattle Mariners, pennantless since their birth in 1977. A close second is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who last saw the World Series in 1979.
Which teams haven't won a pennant this century?
Same nine as last year: M's (n/a), Pirates (1979), Brewers (1982), Orioles (1983), Reds (1990), Athletics (1990), Twins (1991), Blue Jays (1993) and the Padres (1998). Any chance for a pennant in 2025 for any of them? Sure. O's or Twins maybe, since the A.L. doesn't look formidable. But neither has done much in the off-season, while last year's pennant-winner, Yanks, retooled after the loss of Juan Soto.
Which team has the longest World Series championship drought?
Still the Cleveland Indians, who have not won it all since 1948. Then it's a big jump to the Padres and Brewers (b., 1969). Then You-Know-Who.
Which teams have never won the World Series?
Five: Padres and Brewers (1969), Mariners (1977), Rockies (1993) and Rays (1998). Could any of them win it all this year? Not seeing it. Not with the Dodgers and Mets stacked the way they are. But that's why we play.