Last night, the Directors Guild of America gave its award in outstanding achievement in feature film to Guillermo del Toro for “The Shape of Water.” This follows on the heels of the Producers Guild of America awarding its feature film prize to “The Shape of Water,” too. 

So how often has a film won the DGA and PGA and not gone on to win the Oscar for best picture? Four and a half times since the PGAs began in 1989:

Even if “Shape” doesn't win best pic, del Toro seems a lock for best director. Just winning the DGA usually means the Oscar for best director. In the last 10 years, the only break came when Ben Affleck won the DGA for “Argo” but wasn't nominated by the Academy, so its prize went to Ang Lee for “Life of Pi.” Before that, you have to go back to 2002, when the DGA went with Rob Marshall for “Chicago” while the Academy honored Roman Polanski for “The Pianist.” 

If del Toro does win the Oscar, it will also continue the recent diversification of an award that was once staunchly white and male:

• 2017: Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
• 2016: Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
• 2015: Alejandro Innaritu, “The Revenant”
• 2014: Alejandro Innaritu, “Birdman”
• 2013: Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”
• 2012: Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”

Six awards, four Mexican directors, one Taiwanese director. Don't tell Donald. Or do. Let's have some fun.