Alternate History: What If Baseball Had Never Gone to the Division ...

So baseball's 2015 regular season is over and we have our 10 postseason teams, and in a short series anything goes. But I‘ve often wondered what would’ve happened if baseball hadn't changed to a playoff format in 1969, and the team with the best record in each league continued to meet in the World Series.

This year we would get the Show Me Series: the St. Louis Cardinals (100-62) vs. the Kanas City Royals (95-67), 1985 Redux. AKA, the “Take Pity on Don Denkinger” Series.

We still might get it. But how likely is it? How often do the teams with the best records in each league meet in the World Series?

I'm glad you asked:�

Year	AL Best Record	NL Best Record	AL Pennant	NL Pennant
1969	Baltimore Orioles	New York Mets	�	�
1970	Baltimore Orioles	Cincinnati Reds	�	�
1971	Baltimore Orioles	Pittsburgh Pirates	�	�
1972	Oakland A's	Pittsburgh Pirates	�	Cincinnati Reds
1973	Baltimore Orioles	Cincinnati Reds	Oakland A's	New York Mets
1974	Baltimore Orioles	Los Angeles Dodgers	Oakland A's	�
1975	Oakland A's	Cincinnati Reds	Boston Red Sox	�
1976	New York Yankees	Cincinnati Reds	�	�
1977	Kansas City Royals	Philadelphia Phillies	New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers
1978	New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	�	�
1979	Baltimore Orioles	Pittsburgh Pirates	�	�
1980	New York Yankees	Houston Astros	Kansas City Royals	Philadelphia Phillies
1981	Oakland A's	Cincinnati Reds	New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers
1982	Milwaukee Brewers	St. Louis Cardinals	�	�
1983	Chicago White Sox	Los Angeles Dodgers	Baltimore Orioles	Philadelphia Phillies
1984	Detroit Tigers	Chicago Cubs	�	San Diego Padres
1985	Toronto Blue Jays	St. Louis Cardinals	Kanas City Royals	�
1986	Boston Red Sox	New York Mets	�	�
1987	Detroit Tigers	St. Louis Cardinals	Minnesota Twins	�
1988	Oakland A's	New York Mets	�	Los Angeles Dodgers
1989	Oakland A's	Chicago Cubs	�	San Francisco Giants
1990	Oakland A's	Pittsburgh Pirates	�	Cincinnati Reds
1991	Minnesota Twins	Pittsburgh Pirates	�	Atlanta Braves
1992	Toronto Blue Jays	Atlanta Braves	�	�
1993	Toronto Blue Jays	Atlanta Braves	�	Philadelphia Phillies
1995	Cleveland Indians	Atlanta Braves	�	�
1996	Cleveland Indians	Atlanta Braves	New York Yankees	�
1997	Baltimore Orioles	Atlanta Braves	Cleveland Indians	Florida Marlins
1998	New York Yankees	Atlanta Braves	�	San Diego Padres
1999	New York Yankees	Atlanta Braves	�	�
2000	Chicago White Sox	San Francisco Giants	New York Yankees	New York Mets
2001	Seattle Mariners	Houston Astros	New York Yankees	Arizona Diamondbacks
2002	New York Yankees	Atlanta Braves	Los Angeles Angels	San Francisco Giants
2003	New York Yankees	Atlanta Braves	�	Florida Marlins
2004	New York Yankees	St. Louis Cardinals	Boston Red Sox	�
2005	Chicago White Sox	St. Louis Cardinals	�	Houston Astros
2006	New York Yankees	New York Mets	Detroit Tigers	St. Louis Cardinals
2007	Boston Red Sox	Arizona Diamondbacks	�	Colorado Rockies
2008	Los Angeles Angels	Chicago Cubs	Tampa Bay Rays	Philadelphia Phillies
2009	New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	�	Philadelphia Phillies
2010	Tampa Bay Rays	Philadelphia Phillies	Texas Rangers	San Francisco Giants
2011	New York Yankees	Philadelphia Phillies	Texas Rangers	St. Louis Cardinals
2012	New York Yankees	Cincinnati Reds	Detroit Tigers	San Francisco Giants
2013	Boston Red Sox	St. Louis Cardinals	�	�
2014	Los Angeles Angels	Washington Nationals	Kansas City Royals	San Francisco Giants

For the first three years, it was a wash. Same same. Then divergence. If it seems the divergence got worse, it did, because the playoffs became more complex: from best-of-five LDS until 1984, to best-of-seven LDS until 1993, to a two-tiered playoffs with wild card that we have today.

But back to the question: How likely is it for a team with the best record in its league to make the World Series?

Best-of-five LCS (1969-1984): 56%
Best-of-seven LCS (1985-1993): 61%
Wild card era: best-of-five LDS, then a best-of-seven LCS (1995-present): 32%

Some observations:

The Braves have suffered the most from the playoff format. They had the best record in the NL nine times but only went to the World Series five times, for a deficit of 4.�
Cubs and Pirates also suffered. Both have deficits of 3.�That's right: in a non-playoff format, the Cubbies would‘ve gone to the World Series three times in the last 30-odd years: in ’84, ‘89 and ’08.
The Giants have benefitted most from the playoff format: best record once (in 2000, when they lost to the Mets in the LDS), but five World Series appearances for a net gain of 4.�
The Yankees have a deficit of 1, so they'd have 41 pennants rather than 40. Also their period of domination would‘ve been more recent. No pennants in ’96, ‘00 or ’01, but pennants in 2006, ‘11 and ’12.
The two teams that have never been to the Series (the Mariners and Nats), each would‘ve gone (’01 and last year), but now four teams would be no shows, since they‘re all post-’68 teams that have never had the best record in their league:�Rockies, Marlins, Padres and Rangers.�

We would‘ve gotten Royals/Phillies in ’77 rather than ‘80. The Braves wouldn’t have gone in ‘91 but would’ve gone in every subsequent year in the decade, plus ‘02 and ’03. In 2000, the Yankees/Mets subway series would‘ve been replaced by the White Sox/Giants series, but would’ve reemerged in ‘06.

Certain teams seem to do particularly well when they have the best record. The BoSox led the AL in wins three times, and each of those times (’86, ‘07, ’13) they won the pennant. And good news for Cardinals fans: Six times they‘ve had the best record in the NL and five of those times they made the Fall Classic�(2005 was the misstep).

But overall the playoff format seems tailor-made for upstarts. It’s October 5, 2015, and a whole new season.�

Cubs vs. Athletics: 1989 World Series