Last night Sam Mendes won the Directors Guild Award for his WWI film “1917,” adding to the hardware he, and his film, have already collected. The week before it won the Producers Guild Award. Two weeks before that, the Golden Globe for Best Drama. It's been nominated for nine BAFTA awards and 10 Oscars. It's rolling.

So what are the chances it rolls its way into the Oscar for best picture? 

At this point, pretty good. This century, the PGAs and DGAs have agreed 12 times (1917 is the lucky 13th), and of those 12 the Academy went with the DGA/PGA pick 10 times. In 2005, to its perpetual embarassment, the Academy chose “Crash” over “Brokeback”; and for the 2016 season, in an envelope mixup for the ages, it went “Moonlight” over “La La Land.” Otherwise, lockstep.

It feels like we‘re done. Shame. It’s never much fun when we feel like we're done.