erik lundegaard

Sunday January 19, 2020

‘1917’ Wins PGA, ‘Parasite’ Gets SAG

Last night the Producers Guild of America chose its best for 2019, and for feature film they went Sam Mendes' WWI drama “1917.” Mark Harris tweeted this morning that “1917” must have a real chance at Oscar now, considering how much it's being attacked. Truer words.

But how much of a harbinger is it? Well, since the Academy went to the preferential ballot in 2009, this has been the PGA's track record:

Year PGA Oscar
2019 1917 ??
2018 Green Book Green Book
2017 The Shape of Water The Shape of Water
2016 La La Land Moonlight
2015 The Big Short Spotlight
2014 Birdman Birdman
2013 Gravity/12 Years a Slave 12 Years a Slave
2012 Argo Argo
2011 The Artist The Artist
2010 The King's Speech The King's Speech
2009 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker

For the first few years of this, there was a lockstep between PGA, DGA and Oscar. They all chose the same. Since 2013, divergence. In that divergence, though, PGA has been the more accurate indicator of best picture than DGA, SAG-cast, or even the Golden Globes, which, with both drama and comedy/musical, has two chances to get it right.

Overall, in the 10 years since preferential ballots began, the harbinger count favors PGA:

  • PGA: 7.5
  • DGA: 6
  • GGs: 6
  • SAG-Cast: 4

I still say it's down to three movies: “1917,” “Once Upon a Time...” and “Irishman.” Wouldn't be surprised if we got another split: Tarantino for director, “1917” for picture.

UPDATE: Tonight, the Screen Actors Guild gave its cast award to “Parasite.” I think it's the first time a guild award has gone to a foreign film. Congrats all around. That said, as per above, it doesn't mean much for the best picture Oscar race. Last year, SAG cast went to “Black Panther.” The year before, it was “Three Billobards,” and the year before that, “Hidden Figures.” None came close to best picture.

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Posted at 04:36 PM on Sunday January 19, 2020 in category Movies - Awards  
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