erik lundegaard

Wednesday January 09, 2019

2018 DGA Nominees: Why one of these movies will be the Oscar winner for best picture

2018 DGA nominees

The Directors Guild Awards (DGAs) for 2018 feature film were announced yesterday:

  • Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
  • Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
  • Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”
  • Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
  • Adam McKay, “VICE”

For newbie Oscar watchers, this is how it works. Generally, the director that wins the DGA also wins the Oscar's best director, and usually that picture wins best picture. There's been some fumbling of handoffs on this recently but overall it holds. Since 1948, when the DGA began handing out this award, there's been a 75% chance (55/71) that the DGA's directorial achievement is the Oscar's best picture. 

Related question: How likely is it that one of the above films isn't our ultimate Oscar winner for best picture?

Not bloody likely, as Jerry once said. 

Yes, in that first year, 1948, the DGAs didn't nominate Laurence Olivier for best director for “Hamlet,” which went on to win best picture. And in 1989, the DGAs didn't nominate Bruce Beresford for best director for “Driving Miss Daisy,” which went on to win best picture. 

And that's it. Two of 71. 97% chance. So unless something shock occurs, one of the above is our 2018 Oscar winner for best picture.

Among those, I'd vote “Roma” early and often. “A Star is Born” and “Green Book” have good shots, I believe. “Vice” and “BlacKkKlansman”: probably not.

UPDATE 90 MINUTES LATER: OK, “Green Book” is out

Posted at 04:19 PM on Wednesday January 09, 2019 in category Movies - Awards  
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