erik lundegaard

Entertainment Weekly's Summer Box Office Predictions: Reporting the Forecast

Entertainment Weekly’s Fall Movie Preview issue hit the stands (or my mailbox) recently and there’s a lot of guffawing since their cover boy, Harry Potter, won’t be seen until summer now. Happens. Part of the difficulty of forecasting the news rather than reporting it.

These types of issues are generally fun in foresight and depressing in hindsight. Fun because you can imagine just how good these movies will be. Depressing because they’re often not. I still have EW’s Summer Movie Preview issue, which includes extensive write-ups of films like Speed Racer (for May), The Happening and The Love Guru (for June), and X-Files and Meet Dave (for July). X-Files is their big July write-up; it gets four pages. Hancock is second with two pages. In third place is that Batman sequel with one page. Happens.

Don’t know if EW attempts a box office prediction for autumn or if box office is irrelevant in autumn, but they did for the summer. Here it is, with actual rankings and actual box office (thus far) included:

EW Pred. Movie Pred. BO Actual Actual BO 
 1Indiana Jones and the Kingdom...
 $355.9M 3$315M 
 2Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
 $310.8M 9$141M 
 3Hancock  $280.4M 4$225M 
 $280.3M 5$214M 
 5Iron Man
 $262.7M 2$317M 
 6The Dark Knight
 $255.0M 1$471M 
 7Kung Fu Panda
 $224.6M 6$211M 
 8The Mummy: Tomb of...
 $176.5M 18$86M 
 9The Incredible Hulk
 $147.2M 10$134M 
 10Tropic Thunder
 $142.6M 47$36M

It's still early, of course, and films like Tropic Thunder and The Mummy will move up. But enough? I know, it's a game, and EW didn't play too badly. Their big error, besides the DK one, was thinking Chronicles of Narnia would do so well. Their rationale? "The first movie made $292 million, and that was without a hottie prince in the lead role." More interesting is what they left off the summer's top 10: Sex and the City, which is no. 7 with $152M, and Wanted at no. 10 with $133M. I.e., the two films with female leads. Oop.

Again: I know. It's not like my own box office predictions — when I’m asked to make them — stand up, either. I just think in general the media is too fascinated with this kind of thing. It’s hard enough to figure out what has happened or is happening without figuring out what’s gonna happen.

Posted at 08:12 AM on Tue. Aug 19, 2008 in category Movies  
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