erik lundegaard

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Tuesday June 28, 2016

Finding Dory's Box Office

Finding Dory box office

Biggest Pixar ever? Just don't adjust for inflation. 

It's been a busy few weeks, so I haven't had time for stupid stuff like box office. But now I'm a little less busy.

The big box-office story during the last two weeks has been Pixar's “Finding Dory,” which opened bigger than any animated movie ever: $135 mil. The previous highs were: 1) “Shrek the Third,” $121 in 2007; 2) “Minions,” $115 in 2015; and 3) “Toy Story 3,” $110 in 2010. Animateds tend not to open as big as other movies—“Dory” is 19th all-time, for example—but they last longer. Even something as shitty as “Shrek the Third” fell off by only 56% during its second weekend. “Toy Story 3” fell off by only 46%. 

Same with “Dory” last weekend: only 46%. So its opening was the 19th best all-time, its second weekend was the 8th best all-time. Movin' on up.

Question: Can it become the biggest Pixar grosser of all time? Most certainly. That's “Toy Story 3” at $415. After 10 days, “Dory” is at $286, $60 million ahead of “TS3”'s pace. It just needs to keep up that pace. 

Question: Can it become the biggest animated grosser of all time? Sure. That's “Shrek 2” at $441, and it didn't break “Dory”'s 10-day total until its 17th day. 

Question: Can it become the biggest animated grosser of all time adjusted for inflation? Yeah, no.  That's Disney's “Snow White” from 1937, which, in the era before DVDs, VHS, or even television, was re-released every 5 to 10 years and kept racking up the box office. Box Office Mojo has it as the 10th biggest grosser of all time at $935 million domestic. “Dory” won't come near that. But the rest is impressive. 

In other news, the sequel to “Independence Day,” titled “Independence Day: Resurgence,” opened poorly, at $41 mil. That's $9 million less than the first one grossed on its opening weekend 20 years ago. Unadjusted. The first grossed nearly $600 million in 2016 dollars; this one will be lucky to do 1/4 of that.

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Posted at 11:45 AM on Jun 28, 2016 in category Movies - Box Office
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Sunday June 05, 2016

Box Office: Stick a Fork in Ninja Turtles, X-Men, Andy Samberg

Andy Samberg in Popstar

Samberg's box office is ghost like Swayze.

The three lessons of this weekend’s box office:

  • The third iteration of “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” (the one with Megan Fox) is done. The first film opened to $65 mil two years ago; this one opened to $35. It won the weekend, but that’s the wrong direction. If you adjust for inflation, that’s the fourth-weakest opening of the six TMNT movies; and weaker openers killed their respective franchises: “TMNT” in 2007; “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles III” in ’93.
  • Is “X-Men” done? It also opened weaker than its predecessor ($65 mil vs. $90), then fell 66% this weekend, which is a steep fall for a weak open. It’s at $116 after 10 days. In February, “Deadpool” passed that after three days.
  • Andy Samberg isn’t a star. His “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” opened in 2,311 theaters and grossed just $4.6 mil. Ouch. No movie in which he’s starred or co-starred (as a physical being rather than an animated one) has grossed more $40 mil. Generally, they don’t make $15. He’ll always be the “Lazy Sunday” guy—which was 10 years ago, btw. His fans are the fans who don't pay for content.

Overall, it was a bad weekend for BO. Everything dropped like hanged men: X-Men (66%), Alice (60%), Angry Birds (47%), Captain America (50%).

The one bright spot, if you want to call it that, was “Me Before You,” the weepy Emilia Clarke romance, which grossed $18 mil despite mostly negative reviews. Question: Was this box office largesse driven by Clarke, the Mother of Dragons, or fans of the Jo Jo Moyes novel? I assume the latter. Khaleesi is for lazy Sundays, too.

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Posted at 08:58 AM on Jun 05, 2016 in category Movies - Box Office
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Monday May 30, 2016

Box Office: 'X-Men,' 'Alice' Get Small

X-Men: Apocalypse

CGI villain tries to destroy humanity. Again.

The eighth “X-Men” movie apparently isn't the charm. Neither is the second “Alice” movie. 

“X-Men: Apocalypse” opened to an estimated $65 mil over three days, and $79 mil if you count Memorial Day, which is down from the $90 mil, three-day total the seventh “X-Men” movie (“Days of Future Past”) grossed on its opening weekend just two years ago. 

Maybe we're tired of groups of bickering superheroes saving the world from monstrosities. If you adjust for inflation, that's the third-worst opener for our merry marching mutant society:

  Title Opening (Adj) Date Tot/ Gross (Adj)
1 X-Men: The Last Stand $134,595,500 May-06 $306,996,900
2 X2: X-Men United $121,740,300 May-03 $305,848,800
3 X-Men Origins: Wolverine $97,828,100 May-09 $206,889,700
4 X-Men: Days of Future Past $93,549,500 May-14 $241,381,100
5 X-Men $86,709,700 Jul-00 $250,395,500
6 X-Men: Apocalypse $65,300,000 May-16 ??
7 X-Men: First Class $58,656,500 Jun-11 $156,026,100
8 The Wolverine $58,127,000 Jul-13 $144,966,900

In some way, I'm not surprised. I remember seeing the trailer back whenever and just sighing. I don't even know what year it is in that universe anymore. Reviews weren't good, either (49%). 

The other sequel that opened this weekend was “Alice Through the Looking Glass,” which, yeah, did even worse: $26 mil vs. the shocking, $116-million opener for the original, Tim Burton-directed film in March 2010. This one was directed by James Bobin (“Muppets”) and the reviews were not good (30%). All in all, not a happy weekend for Johnny Depp.

Some changeover: “Captain America: Civil War” added another $15 mil to become the highest-grossing domestic film of the year at $377. It's the seventh highest-grossing superhero movie, 12th if you adjust for inflation. Worldwide, it's at $1.1 billion. That's 15th-best all-time. 

It's been a lopsided year so far: five movies have grossed more than $300 mil, compared with only one movie (“Kung Fu Panda 3”) which grossed between $100 and $300. Compare this with just two years ago when we didn't get our first $300 mil feature until the August release of “Guardians of the Galaxy.” 

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Posted at 01:50 PM on May 30, 2016 in category Movies - Box Office
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Sunday May 15, 2016

Box Office: 'Cap' Passes 'Batman v Superman' Worldwide

What difference does 10% make? Depends. If you start at, say, $166-169 million, you're talking a little bit of change.

This weekend, “Captain America: Civil War” fell 59% in its second weekend, earning $72 million domestically. Compare that to the second weekend of the similarly themed but roundly maligned “Batman v Superman,” which fell 69% back in March, grossing $51 million.

And that's the difference between a quality movie (“Cap”) and a travesty (“BvS”). But that's just the beginning. It's going to grow. It's going to be huge.

It already is. On its 10th day of release, “Cap” is at $295 domestic, which “BvS” didn't reach until its 17th day. And “BvS” had a bigger opening Friday: $81 vs. $75. But then word got out. 

“BvS” opened big overseas, too. It looked like a surefire $1 billion movie. But it's stalled worldwide at $868. Because word got out in other languages.

“Cap,” in fact, has already passed it. It's at $940.9 worldwide and will probably wind up at $1.5 billion or so—half a billion ahead of “BvS.” That's what Warner Bros. flushed down the toilet when they put Zack Snyder in charge of their DC universe—dubbed the “murderverse” by pissed-off fanboys. (I'd dub it the stupidverse; it's Snyder's stupidity, more than his lack of ethics and morality, that I truly can't stomach. But yeah, the killing and torture can get to you, too.)

So will Warner Bros. finally give Zack Snyder the boot? Please. Before he has superheroes kill again. Or reminisce about their mothers' names. 

Elsewhere, “The Jungle Book” continues to clean up, grossing another $17 for $311 domestic and second place for the weekend. Jodie Foster's “Money Monster” debuted in third place with $15 mil. Anyone see it? I might check it out. 

#FireZackSnyder.

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Posted at 08:52 AM on May 15, 2016 in category Movies - Box Office
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Sunday May 08, 2016

Box Office: 'Captain America: Civil War' Has 5th-Best Opening Ever

Captain America: Civil War

#TeamCap trying to catch a plane. 

“Captain America: Civil War” grossed an estimated $181 million this weekend, more than “Captain America: First Avenger” grossed in its entire domestic run back in 2011. But that, of course, was B.A.: Before “Avengers.”

It's the fifth-best opening weekend ever, but some might see it as a comedown since “Civil War” is essentially an “Avengers” movie (+ Spider-Man), and it's not quite at their monetary level: “Avengers” opened to $207 back in 2012, “Ultron” to $191 in 2015.

But to me it's a startlingly high number for a series that I thought was oversaturated. Put it this way: We've seen Captain America, in some form, every summer but one since 2011:

It's a testament to star Chris Evans and the filmmakers, who have created interesting continuity, that we're not sick of him yet. Good reviews help, too. DC helps, too, by showing us godawful versions of same. We could all use a Zack Snyder to make us look good.

Speaking of: “Batman v Superman” fell off 73% in its seventh weekend, grossing just over a mil, for a domestic total of $327. Looks like it won't even double its opening weekend take of $166. Moviegoers have fled from that movie like Metropolisians from a Superman/Zod battle. 

The year's biggest domestic grosses so far:

  Movie Dist. Total Opening
1 Deadpool Fox $362,192,266 $132,434,639
2 Zootopia BV $327,624,990 $75,063,401
3 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice WB $327,250,133 $166,007,347
4 The Jungle Book (2016) BV $284,985,265 $103,261,464
5 Captain America: Civil War BV $181,791,000 $181,791,000

“Civil War” review up tomorrow. 

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Posted at 09:28 AM on May 08, 2016 in category Movies - Box Office
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