erik lundegaard

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Wednesday January 09, 2019

2018 DGA Nominees: Why one of these movies will be the Oscar winner for best picture

2018 DGA nominees

The Directors Guild Awards (DGAs) for 2018 feature film were announced yesterday:

  • Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
  • Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
  • Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”
  • Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
  • Adam McKay, “VICE”

For newbie Oscar watchers, this is how it works. Generally, the director that wins the DGA also wins the Oscar's best director, and usually that picture wins best picture. There's been some fumbling of handoffs on this recently but overall it holds. Since 1948, when the DGA began handing out this award, there's been a 75% chance (55/71) that the DGA's directorial achievement is the Oscar's best picture. 

Related question: How likely is it that one of the above films isn't our ultimate Oscar winner for best picture?

Not bloody likely, as Jerry once said. 

Yes, in that first year, 1948, the DGAs didn't nominate Laurence Olivier for best director for “Hamlet,” which went on to win best picture. And in 1989, the DGAs didn't nominate Bruce Beresford for best director for “Driving Miss Daisy,” which went on to win best picture. 

And that's it. Two of 71. 97% chance. So unless something shock occurs, one of the above is our 2018 Oscar winner for best picture.

Among those, I'd vote “Roma” early and often. “A Star is Born” and “Green Book” have good shots, I believe. “Vice” and “BlacKkKlansman”: probably not.

UPDATE 90 MINUTES LATER: OK, “Green Book” is out

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Posted at 04:19 PM on Jan 09, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  
Sunday January 06, 2019

In a Squeaker, National Society of Film Critics Goes for ‘Rider’ Over ‘Roma’

The Natonal Society of Film Critics issued their year-end awards last night, and here are the winners, along with runners up. I like that they gave you the point totals for each, too. Would be interesting if the Academy did the same. 

BEST ACTRESS:

  • Olivia Colman (The Favourite) – 36 points
  • Regina Hall (Support the Girls) – 33
  • Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) – 27

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

  • Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) – 47
  • Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) – 37
  • Emma Stone (The Favourite) – 24

BEST ACTOR:

  • Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) – 58
  • Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) – 30
  • Ben Foster (Leave No Trace) – 25 and John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers, Stan & Ollie) – 25

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

  • Steven Yeun (Burning) – 40
  • Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) – 35
  • Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk, Widows, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse) – 32

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

  • Roma (Alfonso Cuarón) – 70
  • If Beale Street Could Talk (James Laxton) – 26
  • Cold War (Lukasz Zal) – 24

BEST SCREENPLAY:

  • The Death of Stalin (Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin) – 47
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty) – 27
  • The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara) – 24

BEST PICTURE:

  • The Rider – 44
  • Roma – 41
  • Burning – 27

BEST DIRECTOR:

  • Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) – 60
  • Lee Chang-dong (Burning) – 22 and Chloé Zhao (The Rider) – 22

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM:

  • Roma – 44
  • Cold War – 34
  • Burning – 30 and Shoplifters – 30

BEST NON-FICTION FILM:

  • Minding the Gap – 35
  • Shirkers – 31
  • Amazing Grace – 24

FILM HERITAGE AWARD:

  • To the team of producers, editors, restorers, technicians, and cineastes who labored for decades to bring Orson Welles's The Other Side of the Wind to completion for a new generation of movie lovers.
  • To the Museum of Modern Art for restoring Ernst Lubitsch's 1923 film Rosita, starring Mary Pickford.

SPECIAL CITATION for a film awaiting U.S. distribution: A Family Tour (Ying Liang, Taiwan/Hong Kong/Singapore/Malaysia).

Closest race was best actress and best film. One wonders if “Roma” might‘ve won its best pic if it also wasn’t up for best foreign-language film. 

Still need to see “The Rider.” P and I saw “Minding the Gap” yesterday. I went in thinking it was about daredevil skateboarders. Nope.

Here are the past winners from the Natonal Society of Film Critics, so you can see if you agree much. I tend to, give or take a Godard:

2000 Yi Yi
2001 Mulholland Drive
2002 The Pianist
2003 American Splendor
2004 Million Dollar Baby
2005 Capote
2006 Pan's Labyrinth
2007 There Will Be Blood
2008 Waltz with Bashir 
2009 The Hurt Locker
2010 The Social Network
2011 Melancholia
2012 Amour
2013 Inside Llewyn Davis
2014 Goodbye to Language
2015 Spotlight
2016 Moonlight
2017 Lady Bird
2018 The Rider
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Posted at 10:18 AM on Jan 06, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  
Saturday January 05, 2019

PGA Noms Show Diversity, Not Much Else

PGA noms show diversity, not much else

Poster collage via Nathaniel at Film Experience

The Producers Guild announced their top films of 2018 yesterday, and it's not exactly inspiring:

BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

My fave of the group is “Roma” (oddly, the only one whose review isn't up), followed by .... whoosh. Not sure. Maybe “The Favourite”? Then, in no order, “Star,” “Quiet,” “Vice,” Green.“ All have issues but better than ”BlacKkKlansman,“ which has bigger issues. ”Panther“ is an OK superhero flick, ”Rhapsody“ is a below-average music biopic and ”Asians“ is a below-average rom-com.

But it is diverse. 

Is that enough? I look at this list and think: weak year. Or maybe I‘ve just been cranky for 12 months. 

A year ago, the PGA noms went:

The Big Sick 
Call Me By Your Name 
Dunkirk 
Get Out 
I, Tonya 
Lady Bird 
Molly’s Game 
The Post 
The Shape of Water 
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

I would take 5-6 of these over every one of this year's noms save ”Roma."

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Posted at 01:04 PM on Jan 05, 2019 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  
Sunday December 09, 2018

LA —> Roma

Another victory celebration

A week after NY, LA film critics chose their best of 2018, and with the same best of 2018: Alfonso Cuaron's “Roma.” 

I think LA is unique in giving out both gold and silver. No bronze. Here's the films they tapped:

  • Best Film: “Roma”
    • Runner-up: “Burning”
  • Best Director: Debra Granik, “Leave No Trace”
    • Runner-up: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
  • Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”
    • Runner-up: Ben Foster, “Leave No Trace”
  • Best Actress: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
    • Runner-up: Toni Collette, “Hereditary”
  • Best Supporting Actor: Steven Yeun, “Burning”
    • Runner-up: Hugh Grant, “Paddington 2”
  • Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
    • Runner-up: Elizabeth Debicki, “Widows”
  • Best Foreign-Language Film: ??
    • Runner-up: ??
  • Best Documentary/Nonfiction Film: “Shirkers”
    • Runner-up: “Minding the Gap”
  • Best Animated Film: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
    • Runner-up: “Incredibles 2”
  • Best Screenplay: “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
    • Runner-up: “The Favourite,” Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
  • Best Cinematography: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
    • Runner-up: James Laxton, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Best Editing: Joshua Altman and Bing Liu, “Minding the Gap”
    • Runner-up: Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, “Roma”
  • Best Music/Score: Nicholas Britell, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
    • Runner-up: Justin Hurwitz, “First Man”
  • Best Production Design: Hannah Beachler, “Black Panther”
    • Runner-up: Fiona Crombie, “The Favourite”

I saw “Roma” Friday and can't disagree. Looking forward to “The Favourite.” Seeing “Burning” in a few hours. 

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Posted at 04:24 PM on Dec 09, 2018 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  
Friday November 30, 2018

NYFCC: All Roads Lead to Roma

When in Roma...

Fast on the heels of the National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics Circle announced its best of 2018:

  • Best Picture: “Roma”
  • Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
  • Best Screenplay: Paul Scharder, “First Reformed”
  • Best Actress: Regina Hall, “Support the Girls”
  • Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”
  • Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
  • Best Cinematography: “Roma,” Alfonso Cuaron
  • Best Non-fiction Film: “Minding the Gap,” director Bing Liu
  • Best Foreign Language Film: “Cold War,” director Pawel Pawlikowski
  • Best Animated Feature: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
  • Best First Film: “Eighth Grade,” director Bo Burnham
  • Special Award For Career Achievement: David Schwartz, Chief Film Curator at Museum of the Moving Image for 33 years
  • Special Award: Kino Classics Box Set “Pioneers: First Women Filmmakers”

Interesting seeing both Pawlikowski and Hawke honored. Makes me think of an underrated movie they made together in 2011. Also makes me want to see “Cold War.”

NYFCC's big winner, “Roma,” I won't be able to see until Dec. 7 at the Cinerama in Seattle. Wanted to go big screen on it. But I‘ve tended to like NYFCC’s choices. Past NYFCC winners here, with thoughts. 

YEAR NYFCC BEST FILM  THOUGHTS
2000 Traffic  Not for me
2001 Mulholland Drive  Sure
2002 Far from Heaven  Nah
2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King  Please 
2004 Sideways  Sure
2005 Brokeback Mountain  Definitely
2006 United 93  Definitely
2007 No Country for Old Men  Definitely
2008 Milk  I could watch this again.
2009 The Hurt Locker  Safe choice
2010 The Social Network  Good choice
2011 The Artist  Fun and inventive 
2012 Zero Dark Thirty  Problematic
2013 American Hustle  Even more fun 
2014 Boyhood  Deserved
2015 Carol  Wasn't head-over-heels like a lot of people, but respected.
2016 La La Land  Similar
2017 Lady Bird  Long live Greta Gerwig
2018 Roma  Seeing Dec. 7. 
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Posted at 09:29 AM on Nov 30, 2018 in category Movies - Awards   |   Permalink  
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